The 2026 Bracket Challenge is Official

The 2026 tournament field of 68 is set, which means you’ll likely be asked to complete a bracket soon—perhaps even by Thursday afternoon. It’s a bit of a nerve-wracking experience, right? You might find yourself feeling anxious at the thought of making the wrong choices in front of people you may not even care about impressing.

Luckily, we’ve pulled together 10 tips to help you navigate your way through this Bracketing Challenge successfully.

1. Trust at least one underdog from a major conference.

Interestingly, since 2008, every NCAA Tournament has featured a “Power 6” conference team seeded No. 8 or lower that made it to the Sweet 16. For instance, John Calipari’s No. 10 seed Arkansas managed to keep that streak alive with a winning run starting last year.

Here’s the lineup of teams that fit this pattern this time around:

• Clemson (8)
• Georgia (8)
• Villanova (8)
• Ohio State University (8)
• TCU (9)
• Iowa (9)
• Central Florida (10)
• Texas A&M (10)
• Missouri (10)
• SMU (11)
• Texas (11)
• North Carolina (11)

You might not be a fan of these teams, but past tournaments indicate at least one of them could be hanging around when the final 16 teams are announced.

2. Picking the No. 1 seed isn’t a bad idea.

No one should be shamed for going with a top seed, even if you’re not opting for the No. 1 overall seed. Historically, No. 1 seeds have claimed more national titles (27) than all other seed levels put together (18).

They’ve also taken home the trophy seven out of the last eight times, eight out of the last ten, and ten of the last thirteen. This year’s top teams—Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida—look particularly strong, so you might feel good about picking one of them.

3. Have faith in at least one “First Four” team.

The “First Four” (the initial four games usually played in Dayton featuring the bottom four seeds and the last at-large team) has been a topic of much debate since it started in 2011. Yet, in nearly every tournament since then, at least one Dayton team has won a game in the main tournament. The exceptions are 2019 and last year (I mean, some might blame UNC for that).

In fact, the First Four has led to 22 total wins in the main draw, including five Sweet 16 and two Final Four teams. So, trust teams like Texas, North Carolina State, Miami, Ohio State, or SMU to pull through at least once.

4. Avoid choosing a 5th seed to win it all.

Honestly, you probably shouldn’t, but just keep it in mind. All seed lines from 1 to 8 have produced national champions, except the 5 seed. Interestingly, the No. 5 seed has reached the finals four times, including one recent appearance against San Diego State, but they’ve never claimed the ultimate title.

Sorry to those teams like Vanderbilt, St. John’s, Texas Tech, and Wisconsin.

5. Pick at least one 12 seed to win their first-round game.

There’s a reason those 12/5 upsets are so famous. In the last 40 years, at least one 12 seed has advanced past round one in 34 of those years. In fact, over the last 17 years, 12 seeds have scored 29 wins against 5 seeds, boasting a relatively decent track record.

Last year’s exciting tournament had several such upsets, with Colorado State beating Memphis and McNeese State besting Clemson. Plus, UC San Diego gave Michigan quite a scare.

This year, the 5 seed seems stronger, yet don’t underestimate those 12 seeds. Akron has made the tournament for three years straight and has only lost once since early January. McNeese State looks solid in conference play, too, and Northern Iowa has a history of success in these situations. And let’s not forget High Point, which boasts one of the nation’s top scoring offenses.

History suggests at least one of these teams will pull through this week.

6. Don’t just send all four No. 2 seeds to the second weekend.

In 25 out of the last 28 years, at least one No. 2 seed has faced elimination before reaching the Sweet 16. Last year was no exception; although the other top seeds advanced smoothly, St. John’s stumbled in the second round against Arkansas.

Picking teams from this tier can be a tricky business—especially when top teams appear so formidable. But sometimes, you just have to push that cautious feeling aside.

7. Conference championships usually hold significance.

Historically, only five national champions have emerged from the tourney without winning their regular season or conference tournament first. The notable exceptions? Villanova (1985), Kansas (1988), Connecticut (2014), Duke (2015), and UW (2023).

This trend wouldn’t bode well for Iowa State or Houston, who both earned top seeds, but it certainly doesn’t diminish Arizona’s successful outcomes in both the Big 12 regular and tournament titles.

8. Gonzaga and Kansas often make early exit predictions shaky.

Since 2008, Gonzaga has maintained an impressive streak of appearing in every NCAA Tournament without dropping a first-round game. Kansas held a similar record until last year when they lost to Arkansas. While Gonzaga faced their own upset recently, they typically perform well during opening weekends.

9. One bold Final Four choice can pay off.

Choosing a team that seems like a long shot can be intimidating, but it might just be the secret to winning your bracket pool. Since 2012, most Final Four fields have included at least one team seeded seventh or lower. In fact, teams seeded No. 8 or lower have reached the Final Four in four of the last five tournaments.

Last year, it’s true that the final four teams were all No. 1 seeds, but the prior year saw No. 11 seed North Carolina State making a surprising run. The two instance where teams seeded 7 or below didn’t make it were last year and 2019, but there have been times a No. 5 seed joined the group.

It’s risky, without a doubt, but key to standing out could be picking your three favorite teams to reach the Final Four while also observing those regions where higher seeds seem to struggle.

10. Watch out for Big Ten/West Coast drought.

It’s been a long-standing debate in the world of college basketball: when will a Big Ten or West Coast team win another national title? The Big Ten has always been one of the leading conferences, and the resurgence of the West Coast has led to several contenders.

However, the last Big Ten victory came from Michigan State in 2000, and a West Coast team hasn’t tasted championship glory since Arizona State’s 1997 win.

Could teams like Michigan, Arizona, Purdue, Gonzaga, Iowa, or Illinois change that? Sure, it’s possible—but based on trends from the last 25 years, you might want to consider alternatives when selecting your tournament champion.