Key Points

• Since 2024, over $104 billion worth of long-term Bitcoin has been transferred, leading to discussions about whether older investors are permanently exiting the market.

• Data suggests that most Bitcoin moved recently belongs to short-term holders rather than older accounts.

The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price, from $126,000 to $100,000, aligned with a significant increase in sales from long-term holders (LTH). Reports indicate that more than 400,000 BTC has been moved from LTH wallets in the last month, raising questions about whether this represents genuine exits from seasoned investors or just normal trading activities.

Alex Thorne, the head of research at Galaxy, mentioned that by 2025, over 470,000 BTC will have changed hands from five years ago. If you add in 2024, the total will reach more than $104 billion, which is nearly half of all Bitcoins in circulation for that duration. Thorne characterized the past two years as having an unprecedented level of distribution.

This situation has attracted comments from Troy Cross, a philosophy professor at Reed College and an observer of Bitcoin. He remarked that this selling behavior challenges the original ideals of Bitcoin, suggesting that many early adopters no longer see it as fundamentally different from traditional investments.

In contrast, on-chain analyst Checkmate disagreed with the idea of “OG dumping.” He pointed out that while around 500,000 long-held coins were moved, the majority of the recent supply increase for 2025 actually came from coins held for shorter periods (between six months and two years). This behavior is typical of genuine long-term traders locking in profits rather than abandoning the market altogether.

Supporting this viewpoint, a closer look at the supply data from 2024 to 2025 shows that a significant amount of the transactions were made with coins that had been idle for under two years: 0.7 million BTC from those dormant for six months to a year and 0.65 million BTC from one to two years, with much smaller amounts from those held for three to five years (0.12 million BTC) and five to seven years (0.05 million BTC).

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, concurred, stating that the data presents a completely different narrative, indicating that most coins in circulation now come from more recent traders instead of Bitcoin’s original enthusiasts.

Bitcoin Faces Dual Pressure from ETFs and LTH

According to CryptoQuant data, the recent downturn in Bitcoin’s price can be attributed to a dual “selling war” involving institutional ETF investors and long-term holders, both exerting downward pressure simultaneously.

On-chain data reveals that the Spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a nearly $21 billion drop in seven-day cumulative net flows, marking the largest outflow in six weeks. This suggests a significant shift in market sentiment; Bitcoin’s demand seems to have shifted into a surplus.

The market is currently dealing with an oversupply situation, as ETF inflows aren’t compensating for LTH distributions. Analysts caution that unless there’s a revival in institutional demand or long-term holders cease their strategic selling, the market’s short-term outlook could remain bleak.

This article does not offer investment advice. All investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.