The 2026 NFL season is at its halfway point, which seems like a good time to take stock of the teams with a real shot at the Super Bowl.
Sure, someone outside this group could catch fire. That happens. But for now, these 11 teams have a case to make, along with one big question each will need to answer in the second half of the season.
AFC Super Bowl contenders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville has looked like one of the NFL’s best teams through the first half. The Jaguars lead the league in point differential at plus-108—the only team above 100—and in turnover differential. Trevor Lawrence is playing like an MVP candidate, while a defense that already ranked third in Defensive EPA per play got a major talent boost before the trade deadline.
Biggest question: Will the new additions push Jacksonville over the top?
The Jaguars looked like contenders even before general manager James Gladstone made his moves. He was aggressive at the deadline, bringing in Jordan Davis, Jessie Bates III and Davon Godchaux. The question now is whether those additions can help turn a strong team into a Super Bowl winner.
Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville may have dominated the headlines, but Buffalo kept winning. Josh Allen and the Bills went to Minnesota and beat the Vikings on “Monday Night Football,” improving to 7-1 and staying near the top of the AFC standings.
Allen alone gives Buffalo a chance, of course. But the offense has more going for it: James Cook is leading the ground game, and Keon Coleman is becoming a more meaningful part of the passing attack. This is a group that can compete with anyone.
Biggest question: Can the defense hold up?
The defense looked sharp Monday night, though Carson Wentz made things easier for them than they might have been. Buffalo will need more than one good performance as the season wears on. Can this unit deliver consistently?
Bills fans will be hoping Amani Hooker can help provide an answer.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati’s case is built largely around its offense, which looks capable of carrying the team through the second half. Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level, tied for third in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt at 8.0. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins give opposing defensive backs a difficult day, and Chase Brown offers a useful option on the ground.
The Bengals are averaging 0.146 Expected Points Added per play, second only to the San Francisco 49ers. That’s the sort of offense a team can win with.
Biggest question: Can the defense improve?
Yes, the familiar Cincinnati concern is still the defense. The unit had a promising start, including holding Houston to six points in a Week 2 win. But giving up 36 points to Tennessee two weeks ago was hard to ignore.
Denver Broncos
Denver is a tricky team to assess. By some efficiency measures, the Broncos look closer to average than to a Super Bowl contender. Their defense, despite its talent, has been below average against the pass when measured by EPA per dropback, while the offense sits around the middle of the league.
And yet Denver is 7-2, behind only Buffalo in the AFC standings. The Broncos also have a couple of impressive wins, beating both Jacksonville and Kansas City at home. A Christmas Day matchup with Buffalo will be a major test, but for now, Denver belongs in the conversation.
Biggest question: Is Bo Nix the quarterback Denver needs?
That may be the biggest question of all. If Nix is the player Broncos fans believe he can be, Denver could make a deep playoff run. If not, well, the rest of the roster may only take them so far.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is healthy again, or at least healthier, and that alone usually makes Kansas City a contender. The Chiefs have also improved their running game, helped by the addition of Kenneth Walker III last spring. They rank among the league’s best in rushing efficiency.
Still, something feels a little off with this team this year.
Biggest question: Where will the big plays in the passing game come from?
We could have pointed to the kicking game, but the passing attack is the more obvious concern. Kansas City has seven runs of 20 yards or more, the fifth-best total in the NFL, but just 22 passing plays of that length, putting it near the bottom of the league. The Chiefs need to find more explosive plays through the air down the stretch.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are another difficult team to pin down. Their running game has been excellent: Pittsburgh leads the NFL with 0.097 EPA per rush, and it’s one of just two teams with a positive figure in that category. The defense has also been among the league’s best, ranking sixth in defensive EPA per play and fifth in points allowed.
The passing game is a different story. And football, inconveniently for Pittsburgh, has changed since the 1970s.
Biggest question: Can the passing game do enough?
The Steelers are averaging minus-0.069 Expected Points Added per dropback, the seventh-lowest mark in the league. They don’t need a spectacular passing attack, perhaps, but they do need more than they’re getting now.
NFC Super Bowl contenders
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers keep moving along, even with an injury list that seems to stretch on forever. Aside from a stumble against Atlanta in Week 8, San Francisco has stayed near the top of the NFC standings and looks well positioned to win its division. The top seed is clearly within reach, too.
Biggest question: What will make this San Francisco team different?
We’ve seen this version of the 49ers before: a team that wins 12 or more games in the regular season, then falls short in the playoffs. Maybe another year of Brock Purdy makes the difference. Maybe the rest of the NFC has more problems to solve. It’s not entirely clear yet.
Brandon Aiyuk’s return could help, at least.
Chicago Bears
If the playoffs started today, the Bears would be in as NFC North champions. They’d also be one of four teams from the division in the postseason.
There’s plenty to like on offense. Caleb Williams has entered the MVP conversation, although his four interceptions against Tampa Bay on Monday night certainly hurt his case. He still gives Chicago a chance to win each week, and Ben Johnson has this offense causing problems for opposing defenses.
Biggest question: Is Jeffery Simmons the piece Chicago needed?
Chicago’s biggest concerns lately have been on defense. The trade for Simmons could change that. He made an immediate impact against Seattle in Week 8, and if the rest of the defense continues to improve around him, the Bears could become a tough matchup.
Detroit Lions
Detroit checks plenty of boxes on offense. Jared Goff ranks fifth in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt among qualified passers, Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the league’s most explosive players, and the Lions are above average in both EPA per dropback and EPA per rushing attempt.
The defense has been the bigger concern, though it appears to be improving. Detroit has won four straight games, allowing fewer than 17 points in each of its last three victories. That stretch includes holding Jordan Love and Green Bay to 17 points in Week 7. Brian Branch is also expected back soon, which could give the unit another lift.
Biggest question: Has the defense finally turned a corner?
The early-season results were rough: Detroit gave up 30 points to New Orleans in Week 1, 41 to Buffalo in Week 2, 24 to the Jets in Week 3 and 32 to Carolina in Week 4.
Lately, though, the trend has been encouraging.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love has a strong case for midseason MVP. His play has been a major reason Green Bay is in the contender conversation.
The Packers could also get a boost from Micah Parsons, who returned to practice last week. If the pass rusher is available for the rest of the season, he could help turn an average defense into a much stronger one.
Biggest question: Can the offensive line find its footing?
It looked as though Green Bay had sorted out its offensive line a few weeks ago, but the group has struggled lately. Matt LaFleur and his staff will need to settle on the right combination for the stretch run.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings briefly dropped off this list Tuesday morning, then found their way back on it that afternoon. The reason was their trade for Kirk Cousins, which suddenly made an offense that had looked rough seem, at least on paper, more workable.
Whether that’s enough to save Minnesota’s season remains to be seen. Brian Flores has the defense playing well, so perhaps the Vikings still have a path.
Biggest question: Is Kirk Cousins the answer?
Carson Wentz’s performance against Buffalo on Monday night may have been one of the worst outings by a Vikings quarterback in franchise history. That’s a low bar for Cousins to clear, but Minnesota needs him to be at least around league average down the stretch. Even slightly below average might be enough.
