Predictions for Bitcoin Rally Before Year-End
Matt Hogan, who leads the $12 billion Bitwise fund, recently stated that he anticipates a rally for Bitcoin before this year wraps up.
In a conversation during a CNBC market interview, he described the current retail environment as “maximum despair.” This observation follows a series of events including leveraged liquidations, overwhelm in futures trading, and failures of yield protocols. He believes that the sentiment in the market has hit a low point, suggesting that this might indicate a bottom rather than a final downturn in the cycle.
“The cryptocurrency market is moving toward being institution-driven, which is, interestingly enough, a bullish factor. I’m feeling optimistic that the economy will see recovery from late 2025 into early 2026,” he remarked.
He added, “The market needs to clear out the negative retail leverage-driven sentiment and is close to a bottom before we see a bullish reversal.”
Hogan’s outlook resonates with views expressed by Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital, who also recently talked about Bitcoin’s position in the market. In a different CNBC interview, Lee noted how Bitcoin is currently struggling to exceed the $103,000 mark.
“Since October 10th, the liquidations have been like small ruptures, almost like a tsunami. The market is still consolidating in its aftermath,” he explained.
Despite some short-term difficulties, Lee pointed out that there are record levels of trading volumes in stablecoins and a surge in application revenues across platforms like Ethereum and Solana. “Fundamentals are what’s guiding the market right now,” he said. “We believe a consolidation rally may emerge toward the year’s end, with Bitcoin potentially reaching between $150,000 and $200,000.”
Also weighing in, professional trader Main, who co-founded a Kraken-backed prop company, shared insights on the market’s current state. He feels Bitcoin’s ongoing structure reflects its typical four-year cycle.
“The price trend seems to align with a four-year cycle, and it’s functioning accordingly. Maybe it’s just one year. I’m forecasting a cycle high in the fourth quarter of 2025 or the early part of 2026,” he mentioned.
Main further pointed to the BTC/gold ratio, indicating that historically, gold tends to lead Bitcoin’s surges by about 60 to 90 days, and it seems the ratio has now bottomed out.
“Even though gold, tech stocks, and some crypto firms have experienced notable rallies, Bitcoin hasn’t seen a significant spike. I still think an explosive phase lies ahead for Bitcoin,” he added.
Main also noted that the next weekly cycle low for Bitcoin is either close or already here, which could signal a forthcoming all-time high.
He observed, “The chart structure hints at a cycle low that could lead to a new all-time high.” He commented that he suspects there might be market movements aimed at boosting conditions heading into 2026.
However, he warned that if this potential rally fails to break new highs, the market might enter an extended distribution phase. He considers the chances of Bitcoin’s peak price hitting around $126,000 in October to be “relatively low,” but noted, “anything is still possible.”
Main suggests that if the four-year cycle remains intact, 2026 might lean toward a bearish trend, though he doesn’t expect it to be as severe as previous downturns.
“We’re not anticipating an 80% drop, but there could be significant declines. 2026 could also be a strong year for the US dollar,” he concluded.
Credible, a crypto investor since 2017, believes Bitcoin remains fundamentally bullish over longer time frames. He thinks the current decline is a typical, healthy adjustment.
As for the current correction, he stated it should stay above the low of $98,000 or, possibly, just drop below it temporarily, which he describes as “extended flats.” In either scenario, the high timeframe structure remains unchanged.
