Welcome back from Labor Day weekend. It's Tuesday, which means it's officially September. I always thought the year started the day after Labor Day, not January 1st (don't @ me). Still, it feels like a very quiet day here in Washington.Let's see what's happening:

• The Hill and Decision Desk give Harris a 56 percent chance of winning.
• Harris is widening her lead over Trump among women.
• Neither party wants a government shutdown, but significant hurdles remain to preventing one.
• New research suggests that weight loss drugs like Ozempic may reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 reactions.

I Kate Martel Here's a quick recap of what happened this morning and what's coming up. Please send your tips, comments, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you?Sign up here.

Labor Day has come and gone, which means we're in the final sprint before the election when voters start to get seriously engaged.

Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ) ShowVice President HarrisHe has a 55% chance of winning the White House.President Biden The same model who was at the top of the ticket President TrumpThe win rate is 56 percent.

Harris' progressA new ABC News/Ipsos poll found that Harris has widened her lead over Trump among women, leading the former president 54 percent to 41 percent.Read more about the survey

Why is this campaign difficult to plan?Labor Day traditionally marks the final stretch of a campaign, but this time Harris is still introducing herself to the American people, just six weeks after Biden dropped out.

And on September 10th,Barring a major unexpected development, the next chance to reset the race is on Sept. 10, when Trump and Harris face off in an ABC News debate. Republican pollstersFrank LuntzOn Monday, he said he believes the debate “is everything.”

Lantz further stated:“When voters look at two candidates side by side and listen to what they say, not just the answers, it's body language that matters. Is there disrespect? Does someone have their arms crossed? Do they look at the person they're talking to? Does their approach seem presidential?”

Wednesday's EventsHarris is due to unveil her economic policy plan.According to the Washington PostHer team wants to contrast that with President Trump's push for lower corporate tax rates, though details are scarce.

Republicans are expected to regain control of the Senate,Vice President Harris The recent entry of The Hills into the race has muddied the waters a bit.Al WeaverHere's a breakdown of the Senate seats most likely to flip:

West VirginiaThe Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ) predict there is a 99% chance the senator will retire.Joe Manchin(I-West, Virginia) is a Republican-leaning seat.

Montana This seat is a top priority for Republicans. The Hill/DDHQ polling average has Republicans in the running.Tim SheehyWith a 3.5-point lead, Weaver said simply, “If Republicans win in Montana, they're taking back control.”

Ohio: Outside of Montana, Senator.Sherrod BrownThe reelection race of Rep. (D-Ohio) is in the spotlight, and Brown's chances of winning are increasing as Election Day approaches. DDHQ gives Brown a 63% chance of winning, but it will still be an uphill battle for him.

MichiganMichigan hasn't elected a Republican to the Senate in 30 years, and Republicans see this as one of their best chances. But it's still unlikely.

Nevada: Senator Jacky Rosen(Democrat, Nevada) is seen as the favorite to win the seat, but the race is attracting a lot of attention.

Pennsylvania RepublicanDavid McCormickHe's challenging the senator.Bob CaseyRep. McCormick (D-PA) has made some terrible gaffes recently, and Republicans are still hoping for an upset.

Former senator.Pat ToomeyGeorge H.W. Bush (Republican), who represented Pennsylvania in the U.S. senator for 12 years, has said he will not vote for either Trump or Harris in November's election.

He voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020,“If I lose the election and then I try to overturn the election results to stay in power, then I've already lost. At that point, I've already lost,” he said on CNBC's “Squawk Box.”More from the debate With the CNBC hostJoe Curnen. 💻Watch the clip

Please rememberToomey was one of seven Republican senators to vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial.

• “JD Vance's 'Anytime, Anywhere' Media Strategy”:Axios
• “What awaits us with Harris as president?”Atlantic Ocean
• “How Harris Will Deal with Food Inflation”: The Hill
• “Can the Democratic Party stop the 'vicious cycle of taxes'?”The New York Times
• “Men in Republican States Speak Out Louder Against Abortion Bans”The Washington Post
• “Anti-Trump GOP group launches $11.5M ad buy in battleground states”: The Hill

Congress has until Sept. 30 to raise the money to avoid a government shutdown, which neither party wants to do, because it would be a risk with the election so close, but there are still many hurdles to overcome to prevent a funding shortage.

It seems likely that a Continuing Resolution (CR) will be adopted, which would allow the deadline to be extended without changing funding levels, but the question remains as to how long this CR will remain in force.

on the one hand:[Some] Republicans in the House and Senate, bullish on former President Trump's chances of regaining office, have been pushing for stopgap legislation to postpone the next funding deadline until next year.

on the other hand“Democrats are strongly opposed to the idea, and Republicans, especially those in charge of writing annual spending bills, are reluctant to push the work into next year.”

Another HurdleSome conservative members of the House of Representatives are hoping to include a bill on the ballot that would impose stricter citizenship verification requirements, but that bill would likely never pass the Democratic-controlled Senate, so this may be a strategy for conservatives to gain more influence.

read more: HillsAlice FoleyBreak down further obstacles that could complicate efforts to prevent the closure.

🧀celebrate : Today isWelsh Rarebit Day!For those who don't know what this is I have to check it out..

💉 Do you think Ozempic will be TIME's Person of the Year?: A new study shows that the popular weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy may reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 reactions.News Nation)

🖋️ Not so good news for teachersAI detection tools still struggle to spot plagiarism.According to a report by AxiosMegan Morrone.

The House and Senate are in recess.President Biden and Vice President HarrisHarris is in Washington. She has no public events scheduled for today. (All times Eastern Time)

• 1:15pm: State Department spokespersonMatthew MillerReport to the reporter.💻Live Stream
• 2pm: Biden speaks at kickoff event for “Invest in America” ​​content series. 💻Live Stream
• 2:30pm: White House Press SecretaryKarine Jean-Pierreand Tom Perez The Director-General of the Intergovernmental Affairs Bureau explained this to reporters.Live Stream

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