Bitcoin Hits Resistance After Gains
Bitcoin has recently faced challenges after experiencing weeks of gains that pushed it well above its recent lows from the correction period. Although there was positive momentum, a specific obstacle appeared today. A report from XWIN Research Japan has provided insights that alter our perception of this market decline.
Today, Bitcoin dipped briefly below $80,000, while Ethereum fell beneath $2,300. Approximately $90 billion has been erased from the overall crypto market cap, with around $331 million liquidated in the last 24 hours alone. Nearly $100 million of this happened within just a couple of hours. The suddenness and scale of these changes signal a reaction typically seen in response to macroeconomic shocks.
Interestingly, this downturn was not triggered by broader economic conditions. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices remained near their record highs during this time, and traditional stocks didn’t experience sell-offs either. The broader market’s risk appetite seemed unaffected. Rather, it was internal factors that pulled Bitcoin down below the $80,000 mark.
XWIN Research Japan attributes the decline mainly to the structure of the crypto market itself. A combination of leveraged positions built up during the recovery phase and profit realizations from investors who had recently turned profitable contributed significantly. So, the market didn’t collapse due to external events; it was an internal accumulation that caused the downturn.
The findings from XWIN Research Japan highlight specific triggers behind the price drop. On May 4th, Bitcoin saw profit-taking reach 14,600 BTC in a single day, marking the highest level since December 2025. The 37% recovery from the lows saw many investors returning to profitability, and many acted upon that recovery all at once. The SOPR for short-term holders reached 1.016 and has stayed above 1.0 since mid-April, reinforcing this trend. Those who bought recently began selling for profit consistently, not just as a one-off event.
The situation also highlights human behavior in trading. Between February and March 2026, many short-term traders found themselves facing losses of 20% to 30%. The rebound in April not only restored prices but also improved their financial standings. Typically, bouncing back from losses to breakeven or profit tends to trigger new selling pressure. Those who’ve endured losses for an extended period often choose to exit when the opportunity arises.
This leverage aspect accelerated the profit-taking process. As derivatives positions were unwound alongside spot selling, extended liquidations intensified downward momentum, transforming profit realizations into a steeper decline.
XWIN Research Japan’s central point revolves around exchange inflow data. The deposits from large holders have stayed relatively stable, implying that those with the most coins and patience haven’t yet begun an active distribution. This differentiation helps distinguish leverage-driven movements from structural ceilings. Bitcoin currently stands at a pivotal point. The data suggests either the early stages of a bullish rally with adjustments or a bear market rally nearing its natural end.
Bitcoin’s Status Below Resistance
Bitcoin is trading around $80,200 on the daily chart, just below a resistance zone that has repeatedly limited its gains since its breakdown earlier this year. The recovery from February’s lows, around $60,000, remains structurally intact, with prices forming a series of lower lows and gradually reclaiming short- and intermediate-term moving averages.
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages have recently turned upward and are currently serving as support in the $72,000 to $75,000 range, indicating a shift from bearish to neutral to bullish in the short term. Yet, the 200-day moving average continues to trend below the current price, suggesting that the $80,000 to $82,000 zone remains a crucial area of supply.
Recent price activity shows that momentum may be slowing. The price candlestick has compressed below resistance, and volume hasn’t significantly increased during the recent rally. This points to the idea that while buyers are still present, they might not be strong enough to force a solid breakout.
If Bitcoin manages to surpass $82,000 with confidence, it could indicate a continuation and pave the way for higher levels. Conversely, if the rejections persist, the market could revert toward support, with $75,000 being the first area of interest and even deeper demand emerging as it approaches $70,000.
