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Browns (-132) vs. Texans (+111)

On Saturday night, Cleveland will take on Houston in a tough wild-card matchup with a solid defense. The Texans ended the regular season with a bang, winning two straight and three of their final four games to close out the year.

Houston's last loss was against Cleveland on Christmas Eve at NRG Stadium. The game was rather telling, as the Browns' offense played well, totaling over 400 yards and 34 points while holding Houston's dynamic passing attack to just 178 yards.

That doesn't seem to be the case completely this time around, but the Browns' defense has been great at disrupting, if not outright defeating, quarterbacks all year. This, in addition to several injuries on Houston's defense, shows that the Browns have an advantage in QB pressure on defense and an advantage in running the ball on offense.

For most of the season, that's all they need to win, and it's likely to be repeated here.

One notable element is third-and-long, and Cleveland has been able to force punts and field goals all year by chasing the passer on third-and-7 and beyond. Houston's third-and-long conversion rate over the final four weeks of the season was 19 percent.

Overall, the Browns are 2-point favorites with a total score of 44.5. The spread is attractive based on the matchup alone, but Houston is a good enough team to remain competitive even if they don't mount a late-game attack. However, Cleveland has been tough on defense all year, and with Myles Garrett and others chasing Houston, this game will likely be like that again. I would bet on the under.

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