Here’s everything you need to know about how weird the PGA Tour season has been so far.
Jake Knapp, who won the Mexico Open in his ninth career start on the main circuit, had the shortest pre-tournament odds of any 2024 winner.
He was also only the second winner. Another one of his was Hideki Matsuyama, who scored +8000 at the Genesis Invitational, who finished under +10000.
This year has been a strange year for touring. It’s only going to get crazier as we head to PGA National, one of the circuit’s toughest courses.
An extremely tough course, PGA National is in trouble at basically every corner, with the final stretch being dubbed the “Bear Trap.”
Blessed with funky weather, this weekend is shaping up to be the perfect weekend for those looking for excitement.
The Cognizant Classic (formerly known as the Honda Classic) is headlined by Rory McIlroy at +700, but the Northern Irishman is the only player with odds lower than +2000.
Other players under +3000 are Cameron Young (+2200), Russell Henry (+2500), Eric Cole (+2500), Tom Kim (+2800), Minwoo Lee (+2800), Matt – Only Fitzpatrick (+2800). .
Historically, this has been a happy hunting ground for longshots, so let’s see if we can (really) get lucky this week.
Cognizant Classic Recommendations for 2024
CT Pan (+12500, BetMGM)
This is the type of setup you might want to consider playing CT Pan.
Taiwanese don’t intend to hit the ball off the tee, but it’s certainly dangerous on a course where the driver gets out of hand.
A former PGA Tour winner, Pan started T4 in Mexico and has three top-20 finishes in six races at PGA National, including a third-place finish in 2021.
Jonathan Vegas (+27500, Caesars)
When you’re betting on golfers far down the board, you’re looking for subtle signals that they can contend.
While we can’t guarantee a triple-digit long shot, we can find some silver lining.
Jonathan Vegas’ hope is to quickly forget about last week’s pedestrian show in Mexico and bounce back on a track where he had some success.
Las Vegas has competed in this event nine times with some impressive finishes, including a fourth place and a top-20 finish.
What’s more, the Venezuelan has only missed the cut once in his career on this extremely difficult course, which is really impressive.
Zach Johnson (+50000, FanDuel)
PGA National is a place that can get weird, so let’s lean into Zach Johnson at +50000 for a second.
The U.S. Ryder Cup captain and two-time major champion is well past his prime, but he has a few things planned for this week.
As an example, he has made back-to-back cuts and has three top-25 finishes this season.
Not by much, but at least his form is not unplayable.
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But more importantly, ZJ has extensive experience at PGA National, with two of his past three trips here ending with strong results.
Johnson finished eighth in 2022 and 12th last year.
This course doesn’t require you to bomb the ball off the tee. Just go around the track and stay out of trouble. That works out well for Johnson.
