With the Round of 32 all but decided, our people will have an epic Sweet 16 filled with banner-worthy players who could be March Madness national champions.
Here are some gambling-related comments from all eight games Thursday and Friday, including the “pass-or-play” decision.
All odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
West region: 6th place Clemson vs. No. 2 Arizona
Thursday, 7:09pm ET, CBS
Arizona -6.5, over/under 152
The Tigers are well-matched to the Wildcats in general, but they also lack the size and athleticism needed to compete with a dominant Arizona team.
I’m also concerned about the Tigers’ travel issues, considering this game will be played in Los Angeles, giving Arizona a sizable proximity advantage.
Verdict: Pass
East region: 5th place San Diego State vs. No. 1 UConn
Thursday, 7:39pm ET, TBS
UConn -11, over/under 135.5
In theory, San Diego State’s athleticism and defensive switching ability are perfect for stopping UW’s pattern motion offense.
But UConn is a buzzsaw, and Dan Hurley has built a varied, sophisticated, and versatile offense that inevitably exploits opponents’ weaknesses.
On the other side of the court, San Diego State’s offense is worse than the one that faced UW in last year’s national championship game. The Aztecs can’t shoot, don’t have a stud go-to scoring guard like Matt Bradley, and rely heavily on big man Jadon Reedy, but likely Donovan Clingan and the nation’s No. 4 No. He will be swallowed up by the point defense. (43%).
I’m leaning toward tying points with UConn, but the Huskies are overvalued on the market and KenPom projects them as an 8-point favorite, so SDSU needs to stay close. It could ruin the match.
Verdict: Pass
West region: 4th place Alabama vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Thursday, 9:39pm ET, CBS
UNC -4, greater than/less than 173.5
Alabama runs a drop coverage defense with zero rim protection. RJ Davis should tear up the former and Armando Bacot should tear up the latter.
To make matters worse, Alabama commits too many fouls and can’t rebound anything, while the Heels rank in the top 80 in the nation in offensive rebounding and free throw percentage.
It will be difficult for the Heels to stop the flow, but North Carolina boasts the nation’s best transition-denial defense and an elite rim-and-three defense, with Nate Oats’ ball, up-tempo rim-and-3 attack.
UNC must score on every possession during the force just There are enough stops to earn your next trip to the Elite Eight.
Verdict: Play – NC State -4
East region: 3rd place Illinois vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Thursday, 10:09pm ET, TBS
IOwa state -1.5, 146 or more/less than
Iowa State runs a blitz defense that uses aggressive ball screens and is among the best in the nation in terms of efficiency.
But relying on creating isolation is a great way to avoid blitzkrieg.
The University of Illinois has evolved into one of the best offenses in the nation, primarily by using Terrence Shannon, Marcus Domask, and Coleman Hawkins and fully committing to the five-out isoball.
Another way to beat blitzes is to take advantage of second chances and charity stripe points. This is because the inherently aggressive nature of this scheme often results in fouls and leaves the boards open.
Illinois is getting fouled at a top-70 rate and it’s nearly impossible not to foul Shannon on drives. The Illini also get offensive rebounds and score second-chance points at a top-15 rate.
Of course, Illinois’ porous defense can be shredded by anyone, and this comes down to whether you trust the Illinois offense or the Cyclones defense more.
I have confidence in the Illini offense, especially given the nature of the game. There is no evidence that Iowa State’s offense can sustain itself.
Verdict: Play – Illinois +1.5
Southern region: No.11 NC State vs. No. 2 Marquette
Friday, 7:09pm ET, CBS
Market -6.5, Over/Under 151
There are two big questions about this game.
- Can Marquette stop DJ Burns in the post?
- Can NC State stop Marquette’s pick-and-roll offense?
The answer to the first question is…probably?
The answer to the second question is probably not.
The handicap for this match is ambiguous. If they had to, they’d probably play the over, especially considering North Carolina State’s lackluster transition defense has put the Wolfpack over five games in a row.
Verdict: Pass
Midwest region: 5th place Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Purdue
Friday, 7:39pm ET, TBS
Purdue -5.5, over/under 154.5
I love this matchup against a rapidly improving Gonzaga team that plays great low post defense and scores at will. The latter point is essential to stopping Zach Eady and the post-heavy, post-only Boilermakers.
But there is one problem with monsters.
The Zags have been good at not committing fouls this season, but that might not be a problem against Eadie, who can draw fouls at an almost unprecedented rate.
And while the Bulldogs have no bench and (barely) run a seven-man rotation, they rank 342nd in the nation in bench minutes.
If the Zags get into foul trouble early, especially Graham Icke, Purdue will likely get away with it, and it’s hard to know how the whistle will be called.
Verdict: Pass
Southern region: 4th place Duke vs. No. 1 Houston
Friday, 9:39pm ET, CBS
Houston -4, over/under 134
You can’t beat Houston’s ball screen blitz defense by creating ball screens and post-feeding.
They have to beat Houston with their five-out zoom action, crisp perimeter passing, and overwhelming weakside shooting.
Unfortunately, Duke’s entire offense is built around a screen-and-roll game with Kyle Filipovski.
He’s a good roll man, but the Cougars’ athleticism and physicality will overwhelm him and the Blue Devils at the point of attack. They are too good at creating ball screens and defending high post feeds.
Vermont held Duke to 64 points with a 0.92 PPP, including Filipovski’s one-time 3-point attack, thanks to two extremely physical middle-class defenders and mediocre low-major ball screen cover defense. I was able to do that.
Just imagine what Houston is going to do.
I’m a little worried about the Cougars’ ability to generate offense, but I seriously think Duke might score less than 50 points here.
Houston controlled the game for 40 minutes with defense and coverage.
Verdict: Play – Houston -4
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Midwest region: 3rd place Creighton vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Friday, 10:09pm ET, TBS
Tennessee -3, over/under 134
Creighton runs a drop coverage defense, forcing him to produce mid-range shots on the ball.
Dalton Knecht is perhaps the nation’s best on-ball middle floor creator and should crush the Blue Jays’ calk drops.
Against several other drop coverage defenses this season, Knecht scored the following:
- 31st in the first game against South Carolina.
- 26th in Game 2 against South Carolina
- 25th in first game against Alabama
- 39 in the only matchup against Florida.
On the other side of the court, Rick Barnes’ defense excels on the perimeter, gap, and rim, and Ryan Kalkbrenner’s inside-out motion offense works well.
Needless to say, Creighton was physically soft, allowing Jermaine Cousinard and N’Falye Dante to continue playing indirect games for 50 minutes as Oregon’s only offensive line.
That won’t work against Tennessee.
Verdict: Play – Tennessee -3
