The New York Mets entered 2023 with high expectations after splurging in free agency, winning just 75 games, their lowest win total since 2017.
Mets owner Steve Cohen made the move in October to hire David Stearns as head of baseball operations, after waiting nearly three years to hire the former Brewers general manager.
Stearns selected Carlos Mendoza to take over the vacant manager’s position, taking a short-term gamble on free agency and signing a veteran who still had some upside.
He signed Luis Severino and Sean Manaea to complete the rotation, with JD Martinez playing DH. They also acquired Adrian Hauser and Tyron Taylor from Milwaukee.
Management remains keen to provide young players like Brett Batty with opportunities to work through their growing pains and continue to build on the depth of the organization, which we believe will lead to even greater strength coming out of spring training. It will be done.
What will be interesting to see is how teams approach the trade deadline. While it’s pretty reasonable to think the Mets are hanging around in the wild card race, it’s hard to think of them as true contenders with the Braves. The Phillies are lurking at the top of the division.
Mets 2024 odds
| advance to the playoffs | total wins | win the world series |
|---|---|---|
| +180 | 82.5 | 50/1 |
The deciding factor in whether or not they make the playoffs will largely depend on what positives their starting rotation ultimately brings.
Kodai Chiga won’t be available until early May at the earliest, making it especially important that Sterns’ bets on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea pay off.
There’s a natural upside to the lineup given the monster campaigns from Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, but it’s not unrealistic.
The bullpen, led by Edwin Diaz, has more depth than in recent years and will be a strength.
Best bets for the Mets in 2024
Mets advance to playoffs (+200, FanDuel)
If you’re a fan who believes in the Mets or wants a little action, betting on the Mets to make the playoffs for plus money seems like a very reasonable goal.
Stearns oversaw the most successful run in Milwaukee’s franchise history, leading the Brewers to the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 2018 to 2021, matching the franchise’s most postseason appearances in the past 50 years.
When he took over in 2015, he inherited a mid-major team that was in dire straits, stuck in the bottom half of the National League Central Division every year, and had one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
Learn everything you need to know about MLB betting
But, as he did with the Mets, he filled the void by hiring a rookie manager (Craig Counsell) and signing a veteran who still has upside, resulting in what is now one of the best farm systems in MLB. We have begun preparations to build a system that will
Stearns has a lot of work to do right now, and while it took three years of his tenure for the Brewers to make the first of four consecutive playoff appearances, progress toward that goal is accelerating in New York. It should be done.
It may be as early as the first year.
And I’d rather capitalize on the idea that for the Mets to be a good team, they need to be pretty dominant at the top of the lineup.
Pete Alonso leads MLB in RBIs (12/1, FanDuel)
This is a contract year for Alonso, who is currently scheduled to become a free agent after the 2024 World Series.
Targeting players in their contract season who are playing towards the high end of their potential is always an interesting angle, and there are several other factors that work in Alonso’s favor.
Last season was terrible for the Mets. It was no secret that Alonso didn’t like everything that was going on, and the lack of any insulation in the line-up seemed to be a legitimate source of frustration.
Still, he hit .527 xSLG and .368 xwOBA, which was actually an improvement over his 2023 campaign.
He had a bad time in September and October, and I think it’s safe to say that his frustration with the overall situation may have led to more inconsistent at-bats than usual.
Odds of leading MLB in RBIs
| player | team | odds |
|---|---|---|
| jordan alvarez | astros | +900 |
| aaron judge | yankees | +950 |
| austin riley | Braves | +1000 |
| Juan Soto | yankees | +1200 |
| pete alonso | mets | +1200 |
| matt olsen | Braves | +1200 |
Spring training isn’t all that important, but Alonso did everything he could to alleviate late-season concerns, as he posted a .547 slugging percentage and lowered his K rate to 18.3% in the spring game.
have JD Martinez The possibility of providing Alonso with legitimate protection could have a huge payoff, especially when it comes to this bet, and having him deprived of free bases too often is clearly undesirable.
Brandon Nimmo should once again be a strong leadoff candidate, with BAT projecting him to post a .365 OBP. Lindor, who should play behind Nimmo, is also a player I would like to buy.
After that, it’s a little harder to predict a stable lineup, but Mendoza has solid options with guys like Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez.
Alonso doesn’t inherit the same situation as players on teams like the Braves or Dodgers, but he should still prove to be one of the best power hitters in the game, and he’s much more active than he was a year ago. You will be able to get many RBI chances. .
