A similar argument could be made for many of the 12 teams vying for a spot in the 2024 World Series, in a year in which no MLB team achieved 100 wins for the first time since 2014.
The three favorite teams (Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies) received byes in the wild-card round, as did the Guardians, which obviously helps a lot when factoring in the volatility of playoff baseball and adds significantly to the stakes. influence.
It makes sense that these three teams are the betting favorites. Regardless of the odds, my choice is to overcome a few close calls and get past a balanced, close-knit Phillies team.
But when you factor in San Diego's +1200 price tag, it's easy to see why San Diego has become a trending World Series contender in the betting market. And those are my favorite bets, too.
2024 World Series Odds
| team | odds | team | odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| dodgers | +360 | orioles | +1100 |
| yankees | +425 | padres | +1200 |
| phillies | +475 | Braves | +1600 |
| astros | +800 | brewer | +1800 |
| guardian | +950 | mets | +2000 |
2024 World Series Predictions and Nominations
The Padres' 93 wins are tied for third in the baseball world, behind the Dodgers (98 wins) and Phillies (95 wins), along with the Yankees and Brewers. They have a 48-42 record against teams above .500, ranking second behind the red-hot Tigers, who have a 20-10 record in their last 30 games.
That suggests the Padres aren't your standard wild-card team, and when you dig deep into the roster, it makes a particularly compelling case that they're as good as any of the division-winning teams in the field.
Padres hitters have struck out less than any other team this season (17.6%) and ranked fourth in K/BB percentage.
Putting the ball in play with elite pitchers and stretching the count is an asset in the postseason, and not many teams could do that better than the Padres in 2024. The Padres should be able to give their opponents a tough time in a long series.
Xander Bogaerts has been on a roll since the All-Star break with an OPS of .762, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has been amazing since returning from the IL on September 2nd. Tatis had a .568 slugging percentage in the final month of the regular season. season.
With those two healthy and in the mix, the Padres feature one of the deepest lineups in baseball, posting a wRC+ of 118 in September.
Thanks to the additions of Jason Adam and Tanner Scott at the trade deadline, San Diego's bullpen is perhaps the best in the league, entering the playoffs with a 3.14 ERA last month. The unit also ranks first in Pitching+ rating and third in xFIP all season.
The Padres' starting rotation is arguably the best unit of the remaining team, especially in terms of depth. In nine starts since returning from injury on August 12, Joe Musgrove has posted a 2.15 ERA and 3.18 xFIP. As a result, he started in Game 2 against the Braves.
Yu Darvish has also returned to form since returning from the IL in late August and returning to the rotation, starting in five games and recording an ERA of 3.55. He is expected to work out of the bullpen in the wild-card round.
Musgrove and Darvish were the Padres' third and fourth best, respectively, based on the season performances of Dylan Schiess (3.47 ERA, 3.32 ERA) and Michael King (2.95 ERA, 3.54 ERA). There is a claim to be made that it is a starter. . King will start Game 1 on Tuesday night and will give the Seas a shutout Game 3 if needed.
Not many teams in the playoffs, including the World Series favorites the Dodgers, offer as deep a starting rotation as San Diego.
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It's hard to argue that the Padres' lineup is as strong as the Dodgers', but their rotation and bullpen depth lead me to believe they could defeat their archrival if this matchup were to happen.
San Diego will have a slight advantage in the Wild Card Series after Atlanta's bullpen was worked hard on Monday, but it will be an uphill climb for the Braves with Chris Sale's position on the line.
Bet: Padres to win the World Series (+1200, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post Betting?
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but he's also up 180 units himself on the sports betting app's verified picks. Nick can be found at X @nickm_hockey.
