The Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds share more than just their red uniforms. As both teams look ahead to 2026, they’re aiming to rebound after missing out on the wild card last year.
A surprising turnaround for the Reds, spurred by the Mets’ downfall, saw them win eight of their final 11 games, propelling them into the postseason. However, they faced a tough challenge against the Dodgers, suffering back-to-back losses and allowing 18 runs.
Currently, the Red Sox are sitting third in the AL East, largely thanks to their ace, Garrett Crochet. He started the season strong on Thursday against the Reds, performing well in his first game against the Yankees, with 11 strikeouts and only one earned run. Unfortunately, the team struggled in their next two matches.
Crochet was pre-season favorite for the American League’s Cy Young Award, entering with 4/1 odds. He logged a personal best of 205 1/3 innings and notched 255 strikeouts, leading Major League Baseball in that category.
If you check out his Statcast page, you’ll find impressive stats—he ranks in the top 90th percentile for several metrics, including pursuit rate and xERA.
In terms of pitching run value, he remains among the elite. As he faces a Reds lineup that has remained relatively unchanged since they ranked in the top 10 for strikeouts last season, it will be interesting to see how he adapts. The Reds have had their issues consistently scoring runs and excelling in crucial hitting situations.
This Cincinnati lineup boasts talent, but much of the focus will be on Elie Delacruz. After a promising start last year, injuries and fatigue set him back. The return of Eugenio Suarez should help alleviate some pressure on Delacruz, while newcomer Sal Stewart is expected to shine as the team’s top prospect.
This will mark Crochet’s third recent start against the Reds. In 2024, as a member of the struggling White Sox, he racked up 10 strikeouts. Last year’s outing was less consistent, as he allowed five runs over six innings but still managed to strike out nine and secured the win.
He’s had at least seven strikeouts in 19 of his 32 starts and only pitched fewer than five innings once. With the excitement of Opening Day, he has plenty of opportunity to perform in line with his reputation as one of the league’s top power pitchers.
The recommendation here? Garrett Crochet to strike out 7.5 batters or more, with odds at -108 on FanDuel.
