Let’s call it the Fernando Mendoza Bowl.
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Let’s call it the Fernando Mendoza Bowl.
This weekend is crucial for the race to snag the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, as teams battle for district titles and playoff spots in Week 17. The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders will face off on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium, both sitting at 2-13, meaning the loser will be in an excellent position for that coveted top pick.
In theory, one of these teams might secure the No. 1 overall selection this weekend.
Here’s the lowdown on what Sunday’s matchup signifies for the next spring’s top pick.
If the NFL Draft were held today, the Raiders would hold the No. 2 spot, just behind the Giants. While both teams have comparable records, New York is likely to grab the top pick due to a more favorable schedule. According to NFL rules, if teams are tied, the one with the easier schedule gets the better selection. The Giants have a strength of schedule rating of .530, while the Raiders sit slightly higher at .542.
However, should the Raiders lose to the Giants, they’d drop to 2-14, and New York would improve to 3-13. Although that wouldn’t guarantee Las Vegas the top pick, they’d still have a slight edge in the race with just one week remaining. Even if the Giants lose in Week 18 and the Raiders win, the Giants have a shot at catching up thanks to their scheduling advantage.
Keep an eye on the Cleveland Browns as well. Currently at 3-12 with a lower strength of schedule (.492), they could benefit significantly if there’s a tie among the Raiders or Giants.
The Raiders won’t be in a position to claim the No. 1 pick this weekend, but the Giants certainly can.
As of the start of Week 17, there were various ways for the Giants to achieve the top pick, with 11 different scenarios in play. Most of these scenarios depend on a few other teams losing a limited number of games.
After the results from Saturday, that number has trimmed down to three.
The simplest way for the Giants to secure the top spot? They would need to lose against the Raiders, have the New York Jets either win or tie against the New England Patriots, and see the Browns defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. This combination would cement the Giants’ No. 1 pick with one week left in the season.
There’s still a shot for New York to snag the No. 1 pick even if they lose to the Raiders. If the Browns beat or tie the Steelers, along with a tie between the Eagles and Bills, the Giants could be in a good spot. Alternatively, if they lose to the Raiders and the Browns win against the Steelers, they would need to see the teams—including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and others—lose a total of 1.5 games, which could lower their strength of schedule.
Before the kickoff on Sunday, here’s what the top 10 looks like for the 2026 NFL Draft:
* – Teams are already playing in Week 17
