2026 NFL mock draft: Four QBs expected in the first round, along with the Arch Manning situation

Thanksgiving has come and gone, and now we’re seeing some teams officially out of the playoff picture. The New York Giants had the unfortunate distinction of being the first team eliminated after Week 12. Following closely behind them were the Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, and New Orleans Saints, all of whom were knocked out after Week 13.

And with that, draft season is upon us.

Let’s dive into the latest mock draft:

No, I found that header—won’t be using it. Just another night of flipping through channels, you know?

Last time we saw two defensive players omitted in the NFL Draft was back in 2022. That’s when the Jacksonville Jaguars took Travon Walker first overall, followed closely by the Detroit Lions with Aidan Hutchinson. This kicked off a streak of five defenders, which included players like Derek Stingley Jr., Sauce Gardner, and Kayvon Thibodeau.

While it’s unlikely we’ll see five straight defenders this year—more on that later—there’s a strong possibility that with the Titans and Giants leading the draft order, they might lean towards a non-quarterback. In this mock draft, Tennessee opts for pass rusher Reuben Bain Jr., while the Giants secure their defense with Arbel Reese, seen as one of the top all-around talents available.

And we’ll definitely tackle the quarterback situation later on. Currently, there are three teams in desperate need of a QB (and maybe Cleveland joins the mix), which suggests we could see some movement for trades.

What about the quarterback?

Alright, let’s focus on quarterbacks.

This draft cycle has been quite the ride for QBs.

Referring back to an early mock from last spring, there were five quarterbacks projected to go in the first round. Of those, Fernando Mendoza and Lanoris Sellers still seem viable, while the buzz around Cade Klubnik, Garrett Nussmeier, and Drew Aller suggests they might drop out of first-round contention.

The struggles of the latter trio, compounded by Arch Manning’s less-than-stellar season, have prompted murmurs about this quarterback class being a bust. But, it’s a gamble, really. Evaluating QBs can be tricky, as it heavily relies on the organizational context, and those self-evaluations can be tough. Yet, given the number of teams needing a quarterback, it’s possible that we’ll see several from the top ten and others in the first round.

Mendoza has been impressive this season and is a standout QB in this class. His game against Penn State could solidify his status as QB1 should he guide Indiana on a deep playoff run. Still, he has another year of eligibility, so if the Hoosiers don’t clinch a title, staying another year could be on the table.

Dante Moore is new to starting, so it’s a smaller sample size so far, but things are looking up. If he decides to enter the draft, teams are likely to take notice. Yet, he could stick around in Eugene since he still has eligibility.

Ty Simpson has put his name in the Heisman conversation and is eyeing a potential first-round selection too. But he also only has a year as a starter under his belt and can return for another year.

As for the teams hunting for quarterbacks, the Saints, Jets, and Raiders are looking to fill that role early in this draft. The Browns are also under consideration, and although they didn’t take a QB in this mock, they will probably explore options for that position next spring. Sure, Shedule Sanders has shown sparks in his first NFL start, that impressive throw to Isaiah Bond stands out, but more consistency is needed before we can consider him the definite starter for Cleveland.

And regarding Lanoris Cellars, opinions in the NFL Draft media community are mixed. There’s undeniable potential, but also some puzzling inconsistencies. If a team is willing to invest based on his upsides, we might see him in the first round—but a strategy will indeed be required.

Learning from the likes of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay could be wise.

This topic is likely to gain traction in 2026 as well.

In the wake of the 2025 college football season, the notion of Arch Manning being picked first overall seemed to fade quickly. He stumbled in Texas’s opening loss to Ohio State and subsequently fell off many draft boards after a tough game that featured two interceptions against Florida State.

However, the narrative has shifted. Manning is playing significantly better recently, even scoring three touchdowns against Vanderbilt and contributing to a win over Texas A&M last week. This resurgence has led evaluators, like Nate Theis, to speculate that if Manning entered the draft, he could potentially land as the No. 1 overall pick.

I’m not quite ready to affirm that Manning will declare for the draft, nor do I think he should just yet. A year at Texas could prove beneficial for him, allowing him to wrap up any loose ends. But should he decide to declare, subsequent mock drafts might look quite different.

Currently, there are four teams that possess two first-round picks: the New York Jets (thanks to the Sauce Gardner trade), the Dallas Cowboys (through the Micah Parsons trade), the Cleveland Browns (via the Travis Hunter Jr. trade), and the Los Angeles Rams (from the Atlanta Falcons).

In this mock, the Jets address their QB needs while also seeking to replace Gardner, opting for South Carolina cornerback Brandon Cisse towards the end of the first round. Dallas fortifies its defense by selecting two defenders—first adding Texas Tech pass rusher David Bailey, followed by Georgia linebacker CJ Allen. The Rams’ defense is performing well currently, but with cornerbacks Koby Durant, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Roger McCreary becoming free agents, drafting a corner early makes a lot of sense.

As I mentioned, I’ll be examining potential matches between McVay and various quarterbacks, so we might see Sellers at the end of the first round.

For Cleveland, unless Sanders truly establishes himself, the QB position will likely dominate discussions in mock drafts. Yet, the board fell differently in this instance, so the Browns opted for other roles, picking WR Jordyn Tyson first and then Utah OT Caleb Lomu.