The government will close next Saturday morning, unless Congress recovers funding measures by the end of the week and sets up the first big legislative spending battle for President Trump's second term.
The speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA.) is set to advance with a stop-gap measurement, also known as Continuous Resolution (CR), which runs on September 30th throughout the end of fiscal year 2025.
It is unclear whether the law has a vote to pass both rooms.
These are three important groups to watch as the House and Senate prepare to tackle the issue.
Democrats
Johnson may need Democrats who support the House action, given the possibility that some conservative Republicans may vote against it.
Speakers have a small majority and if all Democrats are against it, they can afford to lose just one GOP vote. Rep. Thomas Massey (R-Ky.), who frequently defeats the party, said last week that for many reasons he would “vote against the Clean CR, which will win all the funds for 2025.”
Johnson expressed confidence that the measure would pass the GOP vote.
“I think we'll pass along with party policy,” Johnson told reporters Thursday morning. “But I think all Democrats should vote for CR.”
Because the bill extends existing funds, the law essentially funds the government at a level set under former President Biden.
However, Democrats were angry at the efforts made by Trump and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and said they would vote against the measure anyway.
They specifically pushed the bill to include languages that required the administration to use what was allocated to future funding bills.
The idea was completely rejected by Republicans, and House Budget Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) calls the idea a “non-starter.”
Some Democrats in the Trump district, facing a tough reelection race next year, may offer several votes for the bill.
In the Senate, at least seven Democratic votes would be required to deliver the bill to the president's desk. But if the bill is approved by the House, it may be difficult for Senate Democrats to reject it, as it would make it easier for the GOP to move the blame over the closure to Democrats.
“We're not assuming anything. Senate minority Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) spoke about the possibility that the bill would pass the House.
“You're guessing two or three things I don't [think] Durbin went on to point out that their budget resolution was passed in one vote in late February. “It's still passing by. We'll see if they can do it again.”
Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) is a Senate Democrat who publicly says he supports the bill. He warned his colleagues that shutting down the government, particularly over the clean CR bill the party has been exploring for years, was a political malpractice.
House conservatives
The reason Johnson may need a democratic vote to pass the law is that some House Republicans may vote against it.
And because the GOP controls the White House and the House and Senate majority, the House GOP split makes it much easier to condemn Republicans' closures if House GOP cannot pass the bill on its own.
Many House conservatives are in principle opposed to the CRS. They want to pass budget invoices on regular orders, regardless of the threat of an impending shutdown.
This time, many of them are in the Freedom Caucus, a conservative home, and those lawmakers have expressed openness to passing the stop, but they note that they do not make a final decision until they can analyze the details.
“I haven't seen it. I don't know it's a pretty CR, so I won't have any comments until I see it,” said Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), a member of Freedom Coucus.
“I think in order for the President's agenda to be achieved, we need to ensure that the government maintains its function,” he replied when asked if it would be open to stops at this point.
Considering the calendar, pressing whether continuous resolution is the most logical option, Clyde said “probably.”
When Trump supports it, it may be difficult for Clyde and other conservatives to oppose CR. Trump has supported the stopgap action, and he met with hard-line conservatives last week at the White House to discuss the bill.
“We had a great meeting with the president,” said Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD.), chairman of the Freedom Caucus. “All the conservative groups in the office with him want to support the president's agenda, and we're going to work to get that ongoing solution in a way that we can pass on it, like last week.”
Defense Hawks
The home's GOP Defense Hawk is another important group to watch.
These members are worried about what CR means for pentagons.
In September, the Defense Hawks, led by House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), opposed the continued resolution that grew in 2025, citing concerns about the Pentagon's lack of spending.
This time, Rogers keeps the door open as long as the Pentagon receives the funds it needs.
“I'm not into it,” Rodgers told Hill last week about Johnson's continued resolution pitch for the whole year. “I was told they were going to keep the Department of Defense harmless, whether they were financially or abnormal.
“I told leadership that we would not support CRs that do not completely harmless the Department of Defense, both with budgets and the anomaly of a new start,” added Rogers.
Asked how his leadership responded, Rogers said: “They said it sounded acceptable.”
The Defense Hawks could be a problem in the Senate as well.
Former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY.) chairs a subcommittee overseeing defense spending. I wrote Op-Ed The Washington Post, entitled “Yesterday's Budget Can't Defeat the Enemy of Tomorrow” details why the ongoing resolution is detrimental to U.S. national security.
“The cost of stopping a war is pale compared to the cost of fighting,” writes McConnell. “If Congress doesn't want to invest in deterrent today, the debate on the imminent threat, particularly the urgency of China's “pacing threat,” has little weight. ”
Mike Lilith contributed.
