3 NFL Draft late risers who will go surprisingly high

Donte Whitner. I’m not sure why a particular answer comes to mind when I try to recall examples of past draft hype, but when I think of shocking top-10 picks from the past, the first thing that comes to mind is Dontae.・Whitner’s name.

There is very little information on the internet prior to the 2006 draft. But Football’s Future wrote about Whitner at the time. “He has the potential to be in the top 50.” This draft day mock draft draftking.com Whitner finished 31st. seahawks.this One, he’ll go to the Bengals at No. 24..lighter He was scheduled to be the last pick on the Patriots’ website.32nd steelers.

From what we can gather at the time, the general expectation was that Donte Whitner would be a late first- or second-round pick. In fact, the draft was a tough one for the Bills, who drafted him with the No. 8 overall pick.: “They have reached”; “They have gone too far”. “They could have taken the deal back.”

At the end of the day, whether or not they drafted Donte Whitner earlier than necessary, the Bills drafted a two-time Pro Bowler who played 11 seasons in the NFL and was far better than Michael Huff, who was originally dropped as a safety. did.he It wasn’t like that So-called “reach”.

Who could be the “Donte Whitner” of the 2024 draft, whether it’s a top-10 pick or a surprise first-round pick? There’s still a strong case for picks beyond the top five or six. There is no clear answer because there is no consensus and no one knows who the first defensive player to come off the board will be. But there will definitely be a big surprise Thursday night.

Top 10: DT Byron Murphy (Texas)

Byron Murphy II is slightly favored by many prominent analysts as the first defensive player drafted on Thursday. Including Bucky Brooks of NFL.commocks him. atlanta falcons Picked 8th overall. Murphy said from what he’s heard from teams that he doesn’t expect to be a top-16 prospect, adding that he has a “Marshawn Lynch-like mentality” at the defensive tackle position.

Tim Murray of sports betting site VSIN wrote that Murray’s +300 odds for a top-10 pick are a good bet, and he could be the starting defenseman at 10-1, going 10-1 for the Falcons at 8:00 p.m. He insisted that he could go. Or the Bears at 9 o’clock.

The reason for Murphy’s “rise” is his tenacity and intensity at a premium position where there aren’t many game-changers in the NFL. Former No. 2 overall pick Chris Long said: green lightOn this week’s podcast, he said he was “surprised” by Murphy, saying that while there are about 25 good edge rushers in the league who aren’t in the top or second tier, there are some great and good players at the defensive tackle position. He said he thinks there is a big difference between them. He believes Murphy is an opening day starter and on track to be one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL.

When we asked what each team wanted to do in the draft to acquire a game-changing defensive tackle, we found these recent results:

In 2023, Tyree Wilson was ranked 7th (he is listed as an edge, but many experts thought he should move to the inside) and Jalen Carter was 9th, but due to personality Carter would have been in the top five if there were no concerns.

In 2022, Jordan Davis finished 13th.

In 2020, Derrick Brown finished 7th and Javon Kinlaw finished 14th.

In 2019, Quinnen Williams finished 3rd, Ed Oliver 9th, Christian Wilkins 13th, Dexter Lawrence 17th, and Jeffrey Simmons 19th.

There are two things I noticed. With the exception of 2019, there aren’t that many premium defensive tackle prospects each year. That was five years ago. And there’s no chance this year’s top defensive tackle prospect will fall outside of the first 12 picks. Murphy is at least as good a prospect as Brown or Oliver, if not the same as Carter or Williams.

You’ll probably see a mock draft where Murphy goes to the Rams at age 19. He’s much more likely to go to the Falcons at 8, the Bears at 9, and even the Vikings at 11 if they can’t get a quarterback. their first choice. Because the difference between a top edge rusher and the next-tier edge rusher is much more difficult than the difference between Murphy, then Illinois’ Johnny Newton, and everyone else at defensive tackle.

Top 14: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU

There’s no doubt that if there weren’t three top-10 picks in the same wide receiver class, there wouldn’t even be a discussion of Brian Thomas being the first No. 14 pick. If we take Thomas as a current prospect and put him in the 2023 wide receiver class, he would likely be the first receiver off the board (20th overall pick Jackson Smith-Njiba was the first receiver taken last year). was). A team that needs a top-10 receiver.

It might be lazy to say that a team that made the mistake of passing Thomas to someone else would be nervous about passing him up in the draft. LSU Justin Jefferson is the receiver in the 2020 draft, but there’s no chance he’ll be evaluated based on lazy comparisons.

Jefferson rushed for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns in his third year at LSU, where he was the No. 22 pick and No. 5 receiver in the draft. NFL.com He gave Jefferson a prospect grade of 6.46.

Thomas threw for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in his third year at LSU and is projected as the No. 4 receiver in the 2024 class. NFL.com Gave Thomas’ Prospect Grade 6.47.

The point is not that Thomas will be like Jefferson. The point is, people didn’t know that Justin Jefferson was going to be Justin Jefferson, so with a similar outlook, many asked themselves, “What don’t I know about this player?” That’s what I’m doing. Maybe you won’t miss anything. Or maybe you told yourself a very obvious choice.

Thomas proved everything there was to prove in college, he said. had the second-highest athleticism score at the combine In a competitive class filled with the best athletes, he weighed 209 pounds with 33-inch arms and ran a 4.33 40-yard and 1.50 10-yard split with a vertical distance of 38.5 inches at 6-foot-3. If Brian Thomas hadn’t been compared to Malik Nabors and Marvin Harrison Jr. (we don’t even know if Thomas couldn’t have been a better athlete than them because they haven’t tested them), he would have been He would have been that receiver. No one doubts that he will be in the first 10-12. I’m being a little conservative here by keeping it within the top 14, but Thomas has a top 10 resume. Chris Sims ranks Thomas second overall, ahead of Harrison and Rome Odunze.

In the NFL Mock Draft Database, Thomas’ average draft position is No. 18 in mocks, with the highest recent selection being No. 15 to the Colts by lottery bowler Kyle Lindeman.I believe Thomas can go even further than him. the best projection.

Thomas should be considered for many teams, even if three receivers are projected to go ahead of him: If all three receivers advance to the top eight, the Bears would consider him. What if the Jets decide they need a running mate for Garrett Wilson? What happens to the 10-year-old Jets? If the Broncos don’t like an available quarterback, will Sean Payton need a No. 1 receiver after trading Jerry Jeudy? At 13 years old, the Raiders are always a threat to pick the fastest player in any draft. The 14-year-old Saints are in desperate need of a new lifeline on offense.

The list goes on, but Thomas is good enough to be acquired much sooner than expected. Teams that wait until 16:00 may be too late.

Round 1: CB/S Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri

The NFL has sent some of the league’s top safeties (Justin Simmons, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer, etc.) to pink slips, but these moves don’t necessarily mean a devaluation of the position. It is not meant to indicate. Antoine Winfield received a $17 million franchise tag. Xavier McKinnie signed a contract worth about $17 million per season. Jesse Bates is one of the best signings through the 2023 free agency period, earning $16 million per season.

There are more safeties who make at least $9 million per season than linebackers who make at least $9 million per season, and just as many tight ends who make at least $9 million per season (14).

Players who are released have just reached a point in their careers where their salary isn’t worth it, and that happens regularly with players at every position. NFL teams want good safeties, but they’re getting harder and harder to find these days. Perhaps the answer is college cornerback.

Chris Sims’ top two safeties in the draft, Cooper DeJean of Iowa and Ennis Rakestraw of Missouri, did not play safety in college.

Dejan is already projected to have a first-round pick, but Rakestrow’s odds of getting a first-round pick may actually be just as good.

Reikstro, a 5’11, 183-pound cornerback from Missouri with 32-inch arms who posted a 4.51 40 at the combine, doesn’t appear in many first-round mocks (He was on Mel Kiper’s first show of the year.) and if he is, it’s somewhere in the last three picks. PFT’s Mike Florio gives the Chiefs their final pick. This is the first round result of his only mock draft of the year. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks did the same..

Is Rakestraw a name often talked about by league sources as a first-round surprise player to watch?

ESPN’s Matt Miller doesn’t think so. He mocked Rakestraw to the Jaguars at No. 17 and He placed Ennis Rakestraw in the top 20 of the 2024 class. And he compares him to Tre Davis White.

“Ennis Rakestraw, this guy just came out of Missouri and was a little sleepy,” Miller said. “He was unable to participate in the Senior Bowl due to core muscle surgery. He will be training here in Indy and I hope they do very well. He’s a top 20 player on the board, and compares very well to Tre’Davious White. He’s energetic and physical at the line of scrimmage, and he’s good in press coverage. That’s my favorite stat. LSU ran him once last year, but he didn’t complete a pass for them and they never had their way again. That prolific LSU offense was moving away from Rakstro. . So we know he’s a talented player.”

That’s exactly cornerback, the most sought after position. But part of the reason he’s not ranked as high as other corners is that he’s not as good an athlete as other corners, and he’s not as big as other corners. His coverage skills require work, but he is a beast in run support and is considered a top tackler at the position.. It’s like a kind of safety device.

Teams will be looking for that “next Kyle Hamilton” this year, but while there is no answer at the actual safety position, cornerbacks like DeJean and Rakestrow could play as a safety at the nickel or near the line of scrimmage. may be the answer. . Rakstro could be a Day 3 lock if he just plays outside corner. But as one of the most competitive, easily coachable players in the draft who can move around the field like a chess piece, Rakstro is a modern fit for teams at the end of the first round. Maybe it is.

Bills, Lions, 49ers, Chiefs: They all make sense as a lot of teams could use the safety. In fact, more teams probably need it now than ever before.