President-elect Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine.within a dayEither back in the White House or even before that. Early signs suggest he may be able to make it through, or at least peace may be on the horizon.
For the first time since Russia confiscated Ukrainian territory in 2014, followed by a full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy he signaled that he would consider giving land Gain peace under certain circumstances. This means that President Zelenskiy may be willing to make territorial concessions if NATO extends protection to parts of Ukraine under Kiev's control.
A template for ending armed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine is finally on the table. The devil is in the details, and three core aspects are at the heart of the negotiation.
The first step is where to draw the line.
Russia will likely insist on retaining the eastern Ukrainian provinces it has already conquered and illegally incorporated into the Russian state, in addition to Crimea, where it has significant naval strategic advantages.
President Vladimir Putin may have a tougher negotiation than this, given that the state is largely a plain and simply does not offer any natural defense advantages. The Russian president could begin negotiations by claiming all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River. This is a more defensible line that provides space between Russia's population centers and the democratic West.
But this should be treated as a non-starter for Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky, as it would place the Russian state's new borders right under Kiev. In drawing new boundaries, Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky will need to be strong and strategic, resisting the temptation to end the war at too high a price.
Second, President Trump and President Zelenskiy need to reach the right agreement regarding Ukraine's future security. In other words, Ukraine requires immediate membership in NATO as part of an agreement to transfer land to Russia.
There are clear and empirical reasons for this.
In recent decades, Russia has invaded its “nearly foreign” neighbors, from Georgia to Moldova to Ukraine. What they all have in common is that they are not members of NATO. This proves that the deterrence provided by NATO membership has so far been ironclad.
The world recently witnessed two scenarios in which China illegally occupied sovereign eastern Ukraine and semi-autonomous and liberal Hong Kong. In that scenario, NATO's security without collective defense provisions is deemed worthless by expansionist dictators.
The third issue is who will bear the costs of rebuilding Ukraine. The lessons of the World War I armistice, which impoverished Germany for a generation and encouraged Hitler's insistence on World War II, should not be lost, but neither should the fundamental principles of justice.
Billions of people are stuck in Russia, “Frozen” financial assets Some of it should be permanently seized and then redeployed to fund Ukraine's reconstruction efforts. Estimates from the German Marshall Fund suggest that rebuilding Ukraine will be costly. Approximately 5 trillion dollars in total.
By injecting significant non-dilutive capital, Ukraine's recovery effortsa democratic West could significantly strengthen the recovery and renewal of one of Europe's most promising and strategic economies in the long term. Ukraine has some of the richest critical mineral deposits and agricultural resources on the planet, all of which are critical to the future strength of democratic communities, especially as the Western resource war with the China-Russia-Iran axis continues to take shape. and should feed the economic ecosystem.
Former President John F. Kennedy was right when he said: States “should not negotiate out of fear, but they should not be afraid to negotiate.” Ukraine's chances for peace should not be dismissed lightly, but neither should we forget about justice or buy a fragile peace at an exorbitant price. If Putin seeks to seize too much land, rejects NATO security guarantees for remaining Ukrainian territory, or prefers war rather than losing frozen assets, the price of such peace may be too great. It could be expensive.
Matthew Bondi is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and a contributor to the Center for North American Prosperity and Security.
