For the third time this season, the Philadelphia Eagles will face the Washington Commanders.
This time, the right to participate in Super Bowl LIX is at stake.
The teams split the season series, with the Eagles winning by a final score of 26-18 in Week 11 at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Commanders winning by a final score of 36-33 in the Week 16 rematch.
Now that the rubber match has been decided, both teams hope to head to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. Here are three reasons why that team could be the Eagles.
Saquon Berkeley as Shohei Otani
Last Sunday's NFC divisional round game between Eagles and Eagles. Los Angeles Rams It followed a familiar script.
The close game started in the second half with a long touchdown run by Saquon Barkley.
The Eagles held a 22-15 lead late in the fourth quarter when they regained possession at their own 22-yard line. One play and 78 yards later, Barkley reached the end zone and Philadelphia led 28-15.
That storyline played out in the Week 11 matchup between the teams, with the Eagles holding a slim 12-10 lead midway through the fourth quarter. That's when Barkley gave Philadelphia a bit of a cushion with this 23-yard touchdown run that staked the Eagles to a 19-10 lead.
Then, after Jaden Daniels made an interception on a Washington possession, the Eagles and Barkley struck again, resulting in this 39-yard TD scamper.
What's notable about the Week 11 matchup is that the managers mostly kept Barkley in check in the first half, holding him to just 56 yards on 19 rushing attempts, an average of 3.7 yards per attempt, a significant improvement over his season average of 5.8 yards per attempt. It was below. But the risks of playing against Barkley are similar to throwing to Shohei Ohtani. You might be able to beat him temporarily, but one wrong move could end the match.
Add in the fact that Washington's run defense is near the bottom of the league in expected points allowed per rushing attempt (-0.019), and this game may be a close one heading into the fourth quarter, but the idea that Barkley won More evidence will be added. They could break one or two more big plays to send the Eagles to Super Bowl LIX.
Data provider RBSDM.com.
Jalen Hurts endures fake pressure
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is under an intense microscope this weekend.
While the Eagles feature an impressive rushing attack, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a defense that has developed into its own throughout the season, Hurts and Philadelphia's passing attacks are big question marks heading into the NFC Championship Game. are. Most notable is how Hearts played in the face of pressure. According to the graph data of pro football focusHurts has an adjusted completion percentage (ACP) under pressure of 64.2% this season, ranking 16th in that category among eligible passers (defined as QBs who have completed 50% of their team's dropbacks this season). He is ranked below Jaden Daniels.
(As a side note, Josh Allen ranks 24th out of 24 eligible passers in this metric, something to keep an eye on Sunday night).
Then there are these numbers from my dear friend JP Acosta's article on Hurts on Thursday.
This shows up big under pressure, and Hurts is a completely different QB. According to Sumer Sports, among QBs with at least 100 snaps under pressure, Hurts' EPA per play is -0.52, just one spot better than QB Daniel Jones and also behind Will Revis. It's not that far. He also has a meager 26.8% success rate against pressure, which is on the same level as Deshaun Watson. Isn't that amazing, Bob!
The Rams may have given Dan Quinn and company something of a roadmap to slowing Hurts down: simulated pressure. Hurts and the Eagles' offense struggled against that perception Sunday. Let's take a look at this example. This was one of the Rams' seven sacks against the Eagles in the NFC divisional round.
On this play, the Rams show pressure by having their linebackers walk inside the A-gap, and as the play begins Hurts looks to the right where the Eagles are running a spacing concept. However, one of the robbed linebackers fell into DeVonta Smith's route, depriving Hurts of that option. The QB was slow to realize the backside concept, giving Philadelphia two diagonal routes and the play ended in a sack.
Ideally, the Eagles would avoid finding themselves in a situation like this against the Rams, facing a 3-and-6 situation. It starts in the first section here, with Philadelphia's rushing attack keeping the Eagles in more manageable third-down situations on schedule.
But if the Eagles get behind the sticks on third down, you can expect to see more simulated pressure looks from the managers on Sunday. What we need to get from Hearts at that time is plays like this one. cleveland browns At the beginning of the season:
On this play, a 1-and-15 situation from Week 6, the Browns applied pressure inside, but dropped two defensive tackles in undercover, bringing the pressure from the slot.
Hurts calmly assessed his options in the pocket, attacked the middle of the field, and connected with tight end Grant Calcaterra for a 20-yard gain.
If Philadelphia can get a moment like this from Hurts on Sunday, they will be in Super Bowl LIX.
jalen carter and nolan smith
Critical to Washington's advance to the NFC Championship Game was the play of rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels, especially against the blitz. According to the graph data of pro football focusDaniels had an 80.6 percent adjusted completion percentage (ACP) on blitzes in the playoffs, the best of the four QBs left in the playoffs. Daniels' growth in blitzkrieg has been remarkable throughout his rookie season, which is another reason why managers remain afloat.
However, things may change against the Eagles. Let's think from CBS Sports:
In Washington's Week 16 win, the Eagles tried to treat the Commanders' quarterback like a rookie by blitzing on 35.6% of Daniels' dropbacks, but this is the first game in the 2024 season, including the playoffs. It was Philadelphia's second-highest blitz rate. That approach didn't work, and Daniels beat the Eagles' blitz while going 10-of-15 passing for 173 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. This gave him a passer rating of 145.3, the third-highest in an NFL game this season when making at least 15 throws in a game.
However, his blitz success rate against Washington in Week 16 was well above his season average. Throughout the regular season, Vic Fangio provided pressure. 19.1% of snaps was fifth-lowest. In the NFL.
As such, Fangio is expected to attack Daniels sparingly and huddle around the talented defenders up front to put pressure on the rookie passer. Thankfully, he has players in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith who can do just that. In Sunday's game against the Rams, Georgia's duo combined for 13 quarterback pressures, three sacks, three tackles for loss and two forced fumbles.
If this duo can keep pressure on the passer, Philadelphia won't need to blitz Daniels and the Eagles will be in Super Bowl LIX.
