Throughout the history of professional football, there have been 18 instances in which each of the three teams in a division made the playoffs. As of Week 11, one division is on pace to take 19th place. The NFC North is the best division in football by most metrics, and the top seven conferences with playoff potential already include the Detroit Lions (1 seed), Minnesota Vikings (5 seed), The Green Bay Packers (6th seed) are included. .
The NFC West is interesting. While the three teams in that division won't be playing each other in the postseason, everything is going on on and near the West Coast. We've already discussed three teams in the AFC that could turn their current playoff-less situation around with the right winning formula, but here we're talking about the Arizona Cardinals (currently the No. 3 seed in the NFC). Here's how an unnamed NFC West team came to be. You will be able to move up to a better location.
Currently, the NFC West is by far the widest division in the NFL. No team has more than 6 wins, and no team has less than 5 wins. All four teams have at least Probability of advancing to postseason is 16.2%and probably no other division has four such divisions. So it makes sense that the three teams in the division are keeping an eye on the No. 3 seed Arizona Cardinals here.
Note: Team DVOA metricsthe remaining strength of the opponent's adjusted schedule, and playoff odds These are courtesy of FTN, formerly known as Football Outsiders.
Los Angeles Rams (5-5)
Current playoff odds: 17.8%
Strength of Rest of Schedule: 4th in DVOA
Let's start with the Rams, purely alphabetically. Matthew Stafford missed Cooper Kupp from Weeks 3 to 6 with an ankle injury, and Puka Nacua missed Weeks 2 to 6 with a knee injury. Since they both returned to Sean McVay's offense, Stafford has looked more and more like the Stafford of old, which is always dangerous for the rest of the league. With both Kupp and Nacua on the field, Stafford completed 70.7% of his passes, 8.0 yards per attempt, 5.2% touchdown rate, and 1.7% interception rate. Without them, Stafford completed 64.4% of his passes for 7.0 yards. YPA, 3.0% touchdown rate, 2.1% interception rate.
But where the Rams can really take off is when they have a young defense that is increasingly ready to confuse opponents. The front is lined with current and future stars such as Jared Verse, Braden Fisk, Coby Turner and Byron Young, while the secondary features first-year safety Kamren Kinchens. Won the Weekly Award following outstanding performances in Weeks 9 and 11.
The Rams have a fair amount of remaining schedule remaining, with games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and a debacle in the NFC West. But with two healthy primary receivers and a burgeoning defense, it would be foolish to bet too much against them.
San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Current playoff odds: 26.6%
Strength of Rest of Schedule: 3rd in DVOA
The 49ers shouldn't be in a place where they're trying to claw and claw their way to the postseason. The defending NFC champions rank fifth in offensive DVOA and sixth in defensive DVOA, with Christian McCaffrey returning to the field after missing the first eight weeks of the season with an injury.
The problem, of course, is the Kyle Shanahan issue. San Francisco cannot maintain a lead in the fourth quarter. They have already lost to all three division rivals despite having a fourth-quarter advantage, and this is no fluke of the year. In his career as a head coach — and I'm not even talking about his 28-3 run in Super Bowl LI when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons — Shanahan's 49ers have trailed in the fourth quarter. They have lost seven games, by far the most ever. NFL since 2017.
“It’s super frustrating.” Future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams said in October“Obviously we have to find a way to finish games and get teams out early when we have a chance.”
The reason doesn't matter. The 49ers can't get any better than they are now when they hold a lead. If you can't solve the obvious problem, nothing else matters.
Because the rest of the schedule is ridiculous. San Francisco has the Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, and Arizona Cardinals remaining. Forget about the playoffs. With this situation and this problem, this could just as easily be a story of disaster as it could be a story of redemption.
Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
Current playoff odds: 16.2%
Strength of rest of schedule: DVOA 10th
In 2022, Mike McDonald enters his first season as defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, and Baltimore moves into the rankings. 8th in defensive DVOA. It wasn't bad, but MacDonald still needed people to carry out his plans, and it didn't happen overnight. Ravens ranked Becomes first defensive DVOA in 2023 tells a long-term story – when McDonald has players, his defense is the toast of the league.
McDonald is currently in his first year as the Seahawks' head coach, trying to rebuild a defense that was in disarray under Pete Carroll. However, Seattle is currently ranked because it is not fully staffed yet. Defense DVOA 14thand why McDonald and general manager John Schneider have been cycling through defensive players at breakneck speed. It's starting to show on the field, and given McDonald's defensive genius, you can expect that to continue.
The main problem with Seattle's playoff hopes this season is an offensive line that could be the worst in the NFL. They've gotten through multiple centers who just can't seem to get the ball going in quarterback Geno Smith's direction. Former Dolphins center Connor Williams was supposed to be a versatile player, but he recently suffered from snap accuracy issues and surprisingly retired from football. Seattle was down to No. 4 right tackle until Abe Lucas returned from injury after missing the first nine games of the season against the 49ers last Sunday. And even left tackle Charles Cross, who looked generally above average to great his first two seasons, has been in the spotlight lately from a pressure standpoint.
Smith has been pressured on 39.2% of his dropbacks this season, but this isn't some young, unsuspecting quarterback who accidentally gets himself into trouble all the time. Smith was okay under that pressure with seven touchdown passes, but his seven interceptions showed an inevitable downside.
The Seahawks are probably a year away from where they want to be in the post-Pete Carroll era, but they should be able to put it together better than this. If McDonald's defense continues to improve and the offensive line can stop making Smith feel like a kid playing on the freeway, they have as much of a chance as anyone in the Wild NFC West.
