Assuming a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is signed, the four key elements of the first phase are:
During the first phase, which lasts 42 days, 33 Israeli hostages are scheduled to be freed, including women, children and men over 50. At least two Americans are expected to be freed in the first phase, but it remains unclear how many of the 33 hostages will be freed. It's alive. The first three hostages are scheduled to be released under the Biden administration on Sunday, January 19th (unlike the 52 U.S. hostages held in Iran who were not released until hours after President Ronald Reagan took office). ). Four will be released after the seventh day. the last 14 hostages will be released In the last week of Phase 1. The remaining 65 hostages are expected to be released only in the second phase.
1,000 Palestinian security prisoners held by Israel will be released in exchange for 33 hostages, including at least 250 Palestinians with what the Israelis call “blood on their hands.” Many of the prisoners will be released to third countries.
Fighting ceases and Israel withdraws its troops from Gaza's main population centers over six weeks. Israel has not confirmed the details of the withdrawal. Humanitarian aid has nearly tripled, with an estimated 600 trucks traveling from Israel to Gaza per day.
What are the key takeaways after 15 months?
The ceasefire agreement must be ratified by the Israeli cabinet. It is likely to be approved by all cabinet members. Far-right members have continually threatened to collapse the coalition government, but the main opposition parties (either far-right or far-right parties) are expected to vote in favor of the deal, leaving the ceasefire pending a full Knesset vote. They won't bring it in and overthrow the government. Then the opposition may try to overthrow the government).
The ceasefire agreement is essentially the same as Biden's May 2024 proposal, which was coordinated with Israel. Many people, including myself on these pages, felt that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pulled out of these agreements for selfish political reasons. However, it is important to note that Hamas also never agreed to this proposal.
It is clear that President-elect Donald Trump has played a major role in building consensus between the two parties. President Trump's comments about Hamas releasing the hostages before the inauguration, saying “or all hell is going to break loose,” have gotten a lot of attention. What many seem to be missing is the push from President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff. Encourage Prime Minister Netanyahu to agree to deal. This could be a harbinger of things to come.
Conventional wisdom holds that President Trump will give Prime Minister Netanyahu unlimited permission to do whatever he wants, as was the case during the first Trump administration. However, it should be remembered that the Abraham Accords were long in the pipeline and were brought forward in part to avoid Israel's annexation of the West Bank. The ceasefire talks show that Mr. Trump was able to pressure Mr. Netanyahu, something that Mr. Biden was unable to do because Mr. Trump was lurking in the background.
The last major hostage/prisoner exchange was in October 2011, when 1,027 Palestinian prisoners were exchanged for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier captured in 2006 through a network of Hamas tunnels stretching from Gaza to Israel. He was released.
One of the Palestinian prisoners released in this exchange was Yahya Sinwar, who later became the military and political leader of Hamas and the mastermind behind the October 7 attack. Mr. Shinwar was killed by Israel on October 16, 2024. The names of those to be released will be made public in advance to enable them to petition Israel's Supreme Court to block the release of prisoners, especially those with “blood on their hands.” The Supreme Court has never overturned the government's decision to release prisoners in exchange, considering this a national security issue in which courts should not intervene.
The ceasefire is part of a long-term, multi-phase agreement that includes a complete cessation of fighting, the release of remaining Israeli hostages, the release of additional Palestinian prisoners, and, ultimately, a form of political agreement between Israelis and Palestinians. It is designed to be a part. Gaza (although no agreement was necessarily reached regarding the West Bank). The “next day” problem is approaching. Will we reach Phase 2 or Phase 3? Will President Trump press for a “next day” ceasefire and extension of the Abraham Accords, as Prime Minister Netanyahu did? I can only hope.
Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington and the Middle East. From 1991 to 2005, he was an adjunct professor of Israeli law at Georgetown University Law Center.
