Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $91,000 on November 26th, before regaining the $95,000 level. The two-day 5% rise showed a decoupling from traditional markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries. This change is in contrast to the previous week, when Bitcoin prices were closely linked to the US two-year Treasury yield.
Comparison of US 2-year government bond prices and Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView/Cointelegraph
If investors move away from the perception of Bitcoin as “risk-on” due to its aggressive monetary policy and censorship-resistant features, the chances of it reaching $100,000 by the end of the year increase. Given that some of the world's largest economies are facing growth challenges, investors are likely to seek refuge in scarce assets that support Bitcoin's performance.
On November 28, the 10-year yield on French government bonds in the eurozone's second-largest economy rose to 3%, bringing it in line with Greek government bond yields. Such data is According to “It shows the level of concern over France's political turmoil as the government struggles to win support for its 2025 budget, which aims to cut spending,” he told CNBC.
France's budget deficit is expected to reach 6.1% in 2024, more than double the euro zone's proposed cap of 3%.
In Russia, another global economic powerhouse, the ruble has fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, prompting central bank intervention. President Vladimir Putin was quick to dispel concerns, even though inflation soared to 8.5% in October. reported By CNBC. The central bank has raised interest rates to 21%, but the persistent rise in prices has not yet been stopped.
Bitcoin ETF inflows and miner accumulation support bullish outlook
Inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also contributed to improving investor sentiment, reversing a two-day negative streak on November 27th.
The $103 million in net inflows went primarily to Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's BITB, while BlackRock's leading IBIT fund was flat. This marked a significant turnaround from the previous $548 million outflow recorded on November 25th and November 26th.
Bitcoin miners’ 7-day average net flow, BTC. Source: Glassnode
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin miner outflows ended a 10-day period of average outflows, and deposits to addresses controlled by miners increased. Although this is an estimate and has no official confirmation, it nevertheless contributes to bullish market sentiment.
While miners' accumulation typically signals confidence in an ongoing bull market, profit-taking often creates unwarranted fear, uncertainty, and doubt (also known as FUD). For context, the average 30-day return for miners is 476 BTC, suggesting that at least 30% of outflows are expected to cover expenses.
Related: Bitcoin Halving: 12 Years of Supply Limits and Milestones
A report from Bernstein Research estimates that MicroStrategy will control 4% of the total Bitcoin supply by the end of 2033, addressing concerns about the company's high premium for its BTC holdings. The company currently has a record 331,200 BTC in its treasury and plans to continue its strategy of issuing bonds and stocks.
Bitcoin's path to $100,000 also depends on how the U.S. economy and dollar react to current macroeconomic conditions. However, on-chain data and institutional investor interest remain strong, indicating strong bullish momentum that could push BTC towards new highs.
This article is for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be taken as, legal or investment advice. The views, ideas, and opinions expressed herein are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
