There is less than a week left until the 2024 Super Bowl, where the Kansas City Chiefs will look to defend their title against the San Francisco 49ers.
This game will be a rematch of Super Bowl IV, which the Chiefs won 31-20.
Niners coach Kyle Shanahan plans to use a different quarterback under center this time around, with Brock Purdy set to play in the biggest game of his young career.
San Francisco opens as a 2.5-point favorite and is bet at -1.
Recently, the market has refocused on the 49ers and we’ve seen that number pushed back to -2 and even -2.5 on FanDuel.
For the record, I liked the Chiefs’ opening number. I love that they get 2.5 points.
As for the total, I don’t see much movement as it has remained flat since inception at 47. One reason I think the totals are stable is because they are priced accurately.
However, when we look at the team totals as a derivative, we have identified one team that offers bettors a greater advantage.
Mahomes is still elite.
There’s been a lot of talk about the Chiefs’ offensive line, which has clearly regressed from a year ago when it led the league in points per game (29.2) en route to a Super Bowl championship in 2023.
This season, the Chiefs rank 15th in scoring, averaging just 22.1 touchdowns per game.
However, if you look at advanced metrics like Aaron Schatz’s Defensive Adjusted Value Average (DVOA), Kansas City ranks 8th in this category.
The difference in these rankings suggests that the Chiefs offense has probably been a little unlucky this season. After all, they led the league in the most drops (44), according to Pro Football Reference.
However, looking at quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ performance over the season, he is completing a higher percentage of his passes (72.1%) than expected (68.5%), according to rbsdm.com.
Focusing solely on his performance during the postseason, Mahomes’ completion percentage above expectations (CPOE) jumped from 3.6% to 9%, the highest mark among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays.
So despite the Chiefs’ offensive struggles, Mahomes remains elite. And while it feels like we’ve been waiting all season for this offense to get on the same page, I think an extra week of preparation will do the Chiefs a world of good.
Chiefs already face the best defense in the NFL
One of the most interesting things about Kansas City’s offense this season is finding ways to score points when it needs a push. In the AFC Championship, the Chiefs scored 17 points in the first half against the Ravens, but were shut out in the second half.
But I thought the Chiefs were in constant control of the game and could have scored more if the Ravens had pushed them to the brink. Instead, Baltimore continued to stub its toe, committing unnecessary penalties (eight for 95 yards) and three turnovers.
It’s worth noting that the Ravens were the top defensive team in the league, whether it was in DVOA (-23.6%), points allowed (16.2 per game), or opponent yards per play (4.6).
While the 49ers boast one of the league’s best defenses, they allowed 4.9 yards per carry on the ground against the Packers in the Divisional Round and lost 442-413 to the Lions in the NFC Championship.
I think the Chiefs will be able to move the ball against the 49ers defense and I expect them to exceed the team total of 22.5.
Best bets for Super Bowl 2024
Please select number 1: Chiefs +2.5 (-115, FanDuel)
Select the second one. Chiefs team total 22.5 points or more (-130, DraftKings)
