5 bubble teams that could do damage in men’s NCAA tournament (if they get in)

March is officially here! This means, among other things, that the bubble of everything will intensify.

We talk about how much we love bubbles, we talk about how much we hate bubbles, we talk about how little we care about bubbles, we talk about how weak bubbles are, we talk about how strong bubbles are. Everything will work out very well for the next two weeks.

One of the things I often hear from people who don’t “care” about the bubble (and yet somehow end up getting caught up in these kinds of conversations every March) is that the last few weeks have been too much. Too much attention is being paid to it. A team that has no intention of doing anything of substance in the NCAA Tournament.

This topic would make a lot more sense if it weren’t for the long history of March Madness success by teams that barely cracked the 68-point mark.

First of all, the “First Four” (four games typically played in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday, featuring the lowest four seeded teams in the field and the last four teams to qualify). is quite controversial and often controversial. Though ridiculed since its inception in 2011, the team from Dayton has won at least one game in the tournament’s “main game” every year, but only once since the First Four took hold. The only year that didn’t happen was 2019.

Overall, the First Four has a total of 22 wins in the tournament’s “main draw,” with five Sweet 16 teams and two Final Four teams. University of California Los Angeles In 2021.

Additionally, all but one Final Four since 2012 has had at least one team seeded No. 7 or lower. Since 2011, a total of 12 teams seeded seventh or lower have been eliminated in the final weekend of the season, a significant portion of which were at or near the center of the “bubble” conversation during the final week of the regular season. .

With all that in mind, here are five teams that would likely be double-digit seeds that could do some big damage in the NCAA Tournament if they qualify.

1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Record: 18 wins, 10 losses

Net ranking: 27th place

Everything about Wake Forest screams “10 or 11 seed to win multiple games in the Big Dance.” The advanced metrics love them, they shoot the ball hard from the outside, they have a respected head coach, and they have several players who have the potential to play as March heroes.

The problem is, they only have one Quadrant I win, backing up their “signature win” against Duke with a crushing loss at Notre Dame. If they play well against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, then finish the regular season with a win over a tournament favorite in Clemson, they’ll be safely in 68th place no matter what happens in the ACC Tournament. It should be within the range.

Assuming this happens, be careful. Wake will be a nightmare draw for the 6th and 7th seeds.

2. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 22 wins, 6 losses

Net ranking: 19th place

This is a layup.

Gonzaga has appeared in the NCAA Tournament 24 consecutive times and made the Sweet 16 in each of the past eight years, the third-longest streak in sports history.

This year’s Zags are fully on the NCAA Tournament bubble, despite losing only once since Jan. 11. That string of success includes a quality road win against Kentucky, and the Wildcats seem to get better and better with each recent win.

Coach Mark Few’s team has a great chance Saturday night with a road win over arch-rival St. Mary’s, which happens to have a perfect 15-0 record in the West Coast Conference. That would give the Bulldogs a good chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t win his WCC tournament next week.

Keep in mind, the last time Gonzaga was this firmly entrenched in the bubble (2016), they ended up winning the WCC Tournament and advancing to the Sweet 16 as the No. 11 seed. This year’s group definitely has the offensive talent needed to accomplish something similar.

Photo by: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

3. St. John’s Red Storm

Record: 17 wins, 12 losses

Net ranking: 40th place

It’s really simple. Imagine being an overachieving young head coach who led his team to a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It was more than the coach’s fan base expected at the beginning of the season. Now, imagine that your reward for this success is that perhaps the greatest March Madness player of all time faces his coach Rick Pitino in the first round.

Pitino’s team is red hot at the moment, but they still have work to do to solidify their spot in the top 68. Beating lowly teams DePaul and Georgetown is a must, and (probably) at least one win is a must. Big East Tournament.

St. John’s has a very deep roster, and Pitino has five or six players who could star at any given time. Any team that could be sent to Dayton to advance to the First Four should be rooting for one of the next three teams to drop.

Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

4. Florida Atlantic Owl

Record: 21 wins, 7 losses

Net ranking: 36th place

Another relatively simple list has been added. Florida Atlantic missed the buzzer-beater that kept them from competing in the national championship last season, but they return nearly all of the key players from the team.

While the Owls haven’t lived up to preseason top-10 expectations, they’re still a dangerous enough team, a fact that was made clear when they beat Arizona on a neutral field in December.

Dusty Mays has already lost four American Athletic Conference games, effectively running out of room heading into the final week of the regular season. A tricky road game against North Texas and a home game against a Memphis team they have already lost will be big hurdles to clear.

If FAU does qualify, it will likely be assigned a worse seed than the one it was given a year ago. But that doesn’t mean there’s no chance this group will repeat the magic of last year’s March.

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5. Colorado Buffaloes

Record: 19 wins, 9 losses

Net ranking: 30th place

Most bracketologists are only looking at Colorado from the outside at this point, but that’s good for their fellow teams in the bubble who could potentially play them in Dayton.

The Buffaloes have one thing that many other teams in the bubble don’t have. That’s star power.

KJ Simpson is an absolute scorer at the moment and has good reason to be named Pac-12 Player of the Year. Tristan da Silva was already a star in college, and his grades were as good as they were a year ago. And then there’s freshman sensation Cody Williams. He could be the first college player selected first in this summer’s NBA draft.

Star players tend to shine on college basketball’s biggest stages, and Colorado has three players who could turn heads this March.