WATERTOWN, Wis. — Vice President Kamala Harris has built a four-point lead in the battleground state of Wisconsin, according to a new Marquette Law School poll taken ahead of Tuesday's heated debate.
Voters' religious affiliations are also a big factor, with a dramatic split emerging between Christians who support former President Donald Trump and atheists, agnostics and followers of other faiths who back Harris.
The poll's two-way voting test showed that a staggering 82% of voters who said they had no religion supported Harris, compared with just 17% who supported Trump.
Among respondents who identify with a religion other than Protestant or Catholic, 55% support the vice president and 30% support the former president.
The numbers are reversed for those of Christian faith: In a binary argument, 75% of born-again Christians support Trump, while 54% of Catholics say the same.
Mainline Protestants are divided, with Trump and Harris both receiving approval at 46% among that group.
Church attendance is also a strong indicator of support for Trump, with 63% of those who attend church at least once a week, 55% of those who attend church weekly, and 67% of those who attend church up to twice a month approving of Trump.
Among those who have never attended church, 72% support the Democratic candidate.
The religion data underscores the election results, at least according to this survey, slightly favoring Harris.
The polling group said in July that Ms Harris and Mr Trump were roughly tied. Currently, Ms Harris has the support of 52% of both likely voters and registered voters, to Mr Trump's 48%.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has filed yet another legal challenge to remove his name from the Wisconsin ballot, received 6% of registered voters when all candidates were on the ballot, pushing Harris down to 47% and Trump to 43%.
Regardless of religion, Democrats are more likely to say they are “very devout,” with 72% claiming this, compared with 63% of Republicans.
If President Trump wants to make inroads in the dairy state, economic messaging may be key.
Independent voters rank the economy as the most important issue in this election, followed by Medicare and Social Security. For Republicans, the economy and immigration remain the most important factors in determining their vote, with other issues ranking much lower.
Overall, 41% of voters surveyed rated the economy as the most important issue, 15% named abortion as the top issue, and 12% cited immigration and border security.
Democrats cited abortion policy as their top issue, and the economy lagged behind by a percentage point.
Both candidates are faring poorly in the polls: Harris has an approval rating of 47% and an unapproval rating of 51%, while Trump is faring even worse, with an approval rating of 43% and an unapproval rating of 56%.
The Marquette Law School poll was conducted among 738 voters from Aug. 28 to Sept. 5 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points, meaning that despite Harris' lead, Trump is still in the race.
