The Missouri General Assembly is set to meet on Wednesday to address district rezoning after Governor Mike Kehoe (R) called a special session. If approved, Kehoe’s new map proposal is likely to add an extra Republican seat to the state’s legislative delegation. While the difference between the existing and proposed maps is a single seat, it carries significance given the upcoming political battles for control next year.
So, what are Missouri Republicans aiming for? Kehoe has stated that his intention is to ensure that conservative values are represented throughout all levels of government. The Republicans have already secured state government positions and US Senate seats, but this new map could further solidify their power in the US House of Representatives.
Currently, Republicans hold six house seats in the state compared to two for Democrats. The adjustment could shift that to a 7-1 margin, potentially sidelining Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), who represents Kansas City’s 5th Congressional District. The map redraws parts of the Kansas City area and incorporates conservative rural regions into Cleaver’s district to the east, while also impacting Rep. Anne Wagner’s (R-Mo.) Second Congressional District.
What is the timeline for this?
There’s enough time for Republicans to finalize the new map ahead of the midterm elections. Missouri’s primary elections are scheduled for next August, with the candidate submission period running from late February through the end of March. This timeline suggests that Congress will have several months to review the new map if needed.
How feasible is this change?
With Republicans controlling both the Capitol and Senate—each holding over two-thirds of the majority—passage of a new map shouldn’t present significant challenges. So far, there’s no notable Republican dissent against the plan. Although some Indiana legislators have been hesitant about their redistricting, Missouri seems to have a unified front.
That said, things could shift if enough Republican senators or lawmakers decide to oppose it, but they’d need quite a number—30 lawmakers collaborating with all Democrats—to create a blockade. The pressure from the White House on states with Republican leadership adds another layer of complexity to the situation.
How are Democrats responding?
Democrats have fewer options to oppose this plan than their counterparts in Texas. While they could choose to leave the state, as Texas Democrats did previously, it wouldn’t prevent Republicans from continuing their work since they have the quorum needed. State Capitol leader Ashley Orne (D) mentioned efforts to connect with minority leaders in Ohio and Indiana to strategize collectively on raising awareness about their fight.
At the very least, Democrats are rallying together to contest any changes aggressively. Cleaver, who faces the loss of his seat, expressed concerns that the new map disregards the 40% of Missourians who voted for Democrats in the last election. He emphasized that he would continue fighting for his constituents both in court and at the ballot box.
What’s next?
If the district changes in Texas and California marked the preliminary clashes, Missouri’s special session could ignite a broader conflict. The redistricting in both Texas and California might offset each other, with each party gaining five seats. Thus, the key battlegrounds could extend beyond those two states, Minnesota included.
Ohio is already in the redistricting process, and it seems Republicans may gain two to three seats. Florida might see similar gains, while Indiana could add a couple, assuming progress is made. Although Democrats in states like Maryland might counter, it seems Republicans have a greater number of advantages that could tilt the scales in their favor as this process unfolds. Nonetheless, court challenges regarding the legality of these new maps, particularly concerning voting rights, could span on for months before a resolution is reached.
