President Biden announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah on Tuesday, a significant foreign policy achievement weeks before leaving office.
The cessation of fighting brings much-needed calm to Israeli and Lebanese civilians along the border after nearly 14 months of intensive Israeli rocket shelling, air strikes and ground incursions into southern Lebanon. Provide an opportunity to return to abandoned communities.
Although Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses from Israeli attacks, the ceasefire will also ease pressure on Israeli forces, as most of the country's reserve forces have been fighting on multiple fronts for more than a year. It will be.
Aaron David Miller, a veteran Middle East negotiator and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, “When there is an urgency, that is, it makes more sense to get a deal than to block it.'' “Negotiations are successful when you feel that way.”
“And the way I summarize this at this point is that Israel wanted this deal and Hezbollah needed this deal.”
Here are five takeaways from this deal.
Trading conditions
The terms of the agreement are based on the 2006 UN Security Council ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and do not require a military presence in the territory between Israel and Lebanon's Litani River.
Hezbollah ignored the terms of that agreement and built military infrastructure, including underground tunnels, weapons depots, and concentrations of fighters.
To prevent this from happening again, the Biden administration is focusing on strengthening the Lebanese National Army, which serves as the guarantor of regional security.
Over the course of 60 days, Israeli forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese army will begin deploying to the area. The oversight mechanism, made up of diplomats and military officials, including from France, and chaired by the United States, aims to verify any reported violations. The United States also supports Israel's right to self-defense if it perceives an imminent threat from Hezbollah or other hostile armed groups in the region.
“Going forward, Israel will probably not hesitate to attack Hezbollah if it believes it is operating in violation of the ceasefire agreement,” Nicholas Branford, a nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council's Middle East program, said in a statement. said.
“The question is whether Hezbollah will retaliate for such an act or absorb the blow Israel has dealt in order to avoid another war that would prove costly to the organization.”
Reconstruction of South Lebanon
In addition to personnel overseeing implementation of the ceasefire agreement, the United States is helping coordinate financial support for the Lebanese military, as well as training and equipment to play a security role in southern Lebanon.
“There's another element here, and it's called the MTC, the Military Technical Commission, and it's been revived by us. [the U.S.] This includes the armed forces of several other countries and will provide additional support, equipment, training, financial support and resources to the Lebanese army and security forces,” a senior government official said.
The United States, along with other partners, hopes that the Lebanese army will fill the vacuum occupied by Hezbollah, backed by international reconstruction and economic support for southern communities.
“Learning from its past mistakes, when Hezbollah was the only organization that was doing some work, Hezbollah did little but was the only organization that did some recovery in southern Lebanon. “I think it's in our best interest to support economic growth and support local communities to restore Lebanon to health,” the official added.
President Trump's adviser takes credit
The Biden administration briefed President-elect Trump's national security team on how to finalize a ceasefire agreement, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his advisers met with Trump about the situation in the Middle East.
But the president-elect's allies are twisting the deal's conclusion as a result of Trump's election victory.
Incoming National Security Adviser Rep. Mike Walz (R-Fla.) posted on social platform X that “President Trump has everyone at the table.”
“His landslide victory sent a clear message to the world that chaos will not be tolerated. I am glad to see concrete steps towards easing tensions in the Middle East.”
Miller rejected the notion that President Trump drove the deal's momentum, saying tensions with Israel's military ultimately led Netanyahu to agree to the deal.
“Israel’s standing army is small. Most of the fighting is done by reservists, who are exhausted and stressed to the point where they are required to serve weeks or months longer than their mandated reserve service. “
“Secondly, there is no doubt that Prime Minister Netanyahu's priority is Iran, and he wants to stabilize the threat in Lebanon so that he can focus on what to do about Iran, which he sees as a major threat and a major challenge. I wanted to make it a reality.”
What it means for Gaza
The United States is launching new diplomatic efforts to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which would allow for the release of 101 hostages, including Americans, held in the Gaza Strip, end the fighting and bring Palestinians back to life. It would be possible to scale up humanitarian relief to Release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.
“I believe it's possible, and this Lebanon deal will help break the impasse we're in,” Amos Hochstein, Biden's special envoy for Lebanon ceasefire negotiations, said on MSNBC on Tuesday. ” he said.
Israel has succeeded in significantly weakening Hamas's military and infrastructure, and achieved a major psychological and tactical victory last month by killing Hamas's supreme leader, Yahya Sinwar.
However, there are major hurdles for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose coalition government relies on several far-right ministers, to reach a deal.
Pointing out that Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition partners oppose the release of Palestinian prisoners, Miller said, “The Gaza agreement poses serious difficulties for Prime Minister Netanyahu,'' and Hamas' demands for recognition of the end of the war. He said it was unlikely that the prime minister would agree.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot agree to either of these things and that would lead to the collapse of the coalition government and the IDF.” [Israel Defense Forces] With no government authority and no security system to replace the Israelis, they are preparing for a long stay. ”
Biden pushes forward with Israel-Saudi deal
In his remarks Tuesday, Biden said he would use the final months of his term to pursue an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Washington's commitments to Riyadh include security agreements and support for its civilian nuclear program.
The establishment of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia is seen as the crown jewel of diplomatic efforts to reshape the Middle East, a collaboration between security groups aimed at ending Israel's isolation among Sunni Muslim countries and pushing back against Iran. This will deepen your understanding.
The biggest obstacle to reaching an agreement remains Israel's refusal to recognize a path to a Palestinian state, but the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack and resulting Israeli war in the Gaza Strip As a result, this problem has become even more difficult to achieve.
Far-right members of Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition reject any concept of a Palestinian state, and Israel Public opinion too It is widely opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
