As has been widely reported, 2024 Many electionsBillions of voters are eligible to go to the polls. The election numbers are a stark reminder that elections remain the preferred way societies determine their leaders, and that even authoritarian states feel compelled to hold elections to maintain a semblance of legitimacy.
As we approach the middle of an election year, five global trends are already emerging that could affect electoral integrity.
- Traditional authoritarian tactics remain the greatest threat. The strategic manipulation of legal frameworks and rules of the game to reduce political competition and narrow civic space has been the main threat to democratic elections this year. We have seen the sudden and extrajudicial postponement of elections. SenegalArbitrary arrests of opposition candidates, activists, and journalists In Tunisiadisqualification of opposition candidates Venezuela and, more recently, the suppression of transparent, disaggregated election results information by the Election Commission and the recent passage of a Russian-style “foreign influence” bill. GeorgiaThe aim of the proposed legislation is to severely restrict citizen participation. These tactics are a perfect copy of the authoritarian approach that has been applied for many years to gain an unfair advantage by limiting participation, reducing transparency and weakening accountability in the electoral process.
- Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a problem, but it’s not yet the problem itself. There has been a lot of attention on the threat that generative AI poses to elections, especially the fear of easy access to new AI tools. However, the impact of generative AI on elections is still unclear. Generative AI is being used in online campaigns in the following places: Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Mexico and PakistanIt may be done officially by political campaigns or through less transparent influence operations with no clear source or accountability. While AI-generated campaign content may strengthen elections, most of it is designed to discredit candidates or, less frequently, to improve the image of a supported candidate. AI content may be harder to detect and verify, but “Shallow Fake” and other simpler forms of misinformation remain just as harmful. The use of generative AI in elections remains a threat, but it is currently dwarfed by more blatant, traditional forms of manipulation to consolidate power and suppress speech.
- Trusted institutions are important. Over the past six months, the most resilient elections have relied on strong institutions: competent and credible electoral bodies, an independent judiciary, vibrant political parties, a pluralistic media, and a vibrant civil society. In Mexico, Efforts to weaken Interference from the widely respected national electoral commission has so far been thwarted. In South Africa, the courts and a highly regarded independent electoral commission have helped maintain guardrails around a contentious election campaign. In Taiwan, In the election, the joint and often coordinated efforts of civic tech organizations, Taiwanese media, and government agencies served as a bulwark against foreign interference from China. The strength of democratic institutions to withstand shocks and pressure remains crucial to building accountability, transparency, and trust in the process.
- The people are the most powerful defence of elections. The brightest spot this year is that citizens themselves continue to do their part to protect their right to vote. Guatemala Last year’s elections produced credible results that could not be overturned. In Senegal, the people will not accept an unconstitutional postponement of elections. GeorgiaProtests against the adoption of draconian election laws continue. Additionally, citizens around the world are gathering in almost every country to monitor their country’s elections, known as national elections or election observation activities. Citizen ObservationBut citizen observers are facing threats like never before. From the start of 2024, election observers in Azerbaijan and Georgia Serbia They have become the victims of a sustained campaign of discrediting and, in some cases, subjecting them to threats, detention and violence. United Nations Special Rapporteur and others To protect the role that election observers play as defenders of the civil and political rights of citizens.
- Every year is an election year. Democracy is more than elections, but elections can have unexpected consequences, provide a means to hold representatives accountable, and provide periodic opportunities for democratic renewal. Quantifying the number of world elections is useful for drawing attention but does not provide an accurate picture of the global electoral landscape. Some elections, such as those in Belarus and Iran, are elections in name only. or Russia. Other countries are either not hosting as planned due to ongoing conflict (Ukraine) or the situation is very uncertain (South Sudan). Sudden election and re-air This is not unusual. Meanwhile, hundreds of local elections that can have a major impact on people’s lives often go uncounted. Election dates are complex and uncertain, and the importance of fundamental rights of citizens will not suddenly disappear, nor will the electoral agenda suddenly disappear in January 2025.
We will continue to follow many elections in 2024, but if this year has taught us anything, it is that all elections matter, no matter when and where they take place. We call on the international community, governments, civil society and media to pay similar attention to elections in 2025 and beyond.
Julia Brothers is vice director, Richard L. Klein is director, and Mario Mitre is senior adviser for elections and political processes at the National Democratic Institute.
