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5 upset picks for 2025 men’s NCAA tournament’s first round

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is filled with potential confusion, including double-digit seeds.

There are plenty of interesting matchups when it comes to potential upsets, as there are a few seed disparities with the committee and many talented regular season champions have also won automatic bids from conference tournament wins.

These five matchups are games to watch when it comes to picking and moving double digit seeds. The upset in this preview is to win the first round game with 11 seeds or more.

No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson, 2:15pm, Thursday

Thursday afternoon matches can bring drama early in the tournament, and this 5/12 matchup could be the tournament's first upset clock.

McNeese will return to the NCAA Tournament following his first round loss to Gonzaga last season. The Cowboys and head coaches will Wade the talent and experience with six players on average in nearly double digits this season.

McNeese regularly introduces unique players as first-class scorers, with six different players doing so in the last eight games.

Defensively, the Cowboys are the top 20 in the country in terms of sales (18th), and a respectable 39th (47.5) in effective field goal defense. Both teams evaluated the country's top 30 experience and became one of the games with more veterans in the first round.

The offensive glass is a statistic to look at on both teams. McNeese attacks aggressive glass vigorously (an offensive rebound percentage of No. 42), while Clemson can clean the glass (an defensive rebound percentage of No. 191). On the other side of the ball, Clemson's Big Frontline is 67th in the offensive rebound rating, while McNeece is 259th in the defensive glass.

No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU, 3:05pm, Thursday

The two teams play very well in this game, and are rated against each other in Kenpom. BYU IS No. 24, VCU is 30th in front of the tournament.

VCU has been losing two times this season to the Atlantic 10 since its launch in 2025, winning nine straight games after losing to Houston.

In the trademark VCU Fashion, Ram's Blitz competes defensively, rating the opponent's number one in the effective field goal percentage and 31 in sales. With top 25 defenses, the VCU gives shots against powerful BYU attacks that can quickly score points.

The Cougars need to limit turnovers (return rate of 207), but it's a top flight attack with shooters all over the floor for Egoldenin to find. Demin has been suffering from pressure from time to time this season, facing strong Rams backcourts that include Max Shulga, Joe Bamisil, Zeb Jackson and Philip Russell.

The Rams can use spikes to average 3-point shooting (33.5%), but are ranked 12th in the country in terms of offensive rebound rates.

Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri, Thursday at 6:35pm

A struggle with the Missouri State fight is Missouri Valley Conference winner Drake on Thursday evening.

Missouri lost five of his last seven games at the dull end of the season. The Tigers consistently allowed opponents to score more than 90 points during that stretch, putting a lot of pressure on match points on the team's top five attacks.

The Bulldogs won 18 of 19 games to close the season, losing only to Bradley. Guard Bennett Stiltz has moved from Division II to Drake this season, bringing 19.1 points, 5.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game.

Keep an eye on this pace as the Tigers have been involved in recent track competitions while Drake plays the 364 No. 364 tempo in the country.

No. 12 UC San Diego vs. 5 Michigan, Thursday at 9pm

Another fascinating 5/12 matchup sees the analytical Darling UC San Diego Battle Big Ten Tournament Champion Michigan.

Triton won 30 games during his impressive season when he won the Big West. Star Senior Aniwa Niwa Tight Jones is the unique scorer who leads UC San Diego's offense in the nation with an effective field goal percentage (55.4%). Tait-Jones is the third in the country with fouls drawn by game (8), and should be constantly checked by the Michigan defense.

Turnover is a major factor in the outcome. UC San Diego will attack and minimize the top 10 in the country's sales percentages of offensive (No. 7) and defense (No. 7) and defense, forcing turnovers into defense.

It concerns a Michigan violation of 328nd 328nd in percentage of sales (19.8%). The Wolverine must grip the ball and use a noticeable size advantage over the Triton.

The UC San Diego small lineup does not feature players above 6 feet – 8 – can include a 7-foot Wolverine frontcourt.

Boise State Broncos v Colorado State Rams

Photo by David Becker/Getty Images

No. 12 Colorado vs. 5 Memphis, Friday at 1pm

This upset is frequently chosen in Colorado, which is actually preferred to win most places. The Rams won 10 straight games and advanced to the field of 68 by winning. Mountain West Conference tournament.

One of the hottest teams on the field, Colorado has a stronger profile than most 12 seeds. The Rams show off their top 50 offenses (No. 43) and defense (No. 49) per Kenpom, and have a legitimate star for senior Neek Clifford.

Stretching the Monster Numbers, Clifford (19.0 ppg, 9.7 RPG, 4.4 APG this season) ranked sixth in Kenpom's Player of the Year NCAA Tournament.

Not only Clifford, Colorado, but also ranked 23rd nationwide for effective field goal percentage (55.8%) during the season, he regularly took quality shots from talented players.

Memphis is the fifth powerful species. The Tigers defeated Missouri uconn, MichiganClemson and Olemis Non-conference play. Memphis has also not played an NCAA tournament team since December, thanks to the slate of another weak conference in America.

This season's unstable turnover (306 in sales) will make Memphis more likely to receive a closed game if the boundary shots aren't falling. Colorado also needs to slow down explosive scoring guard PJ Hagerty, third in the nation in points per game at 21.8 this season.

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