The bubble drama has become a major storyline heading into the 2024 NCAA Tournament. This year’s bubble situation was compounded by comparable resumes and a complicated conference tournament development. The unpredictable weekend changed many dreams and changed many travel plans.
Five bid thieves – New Mexico, Duquesne, UAB, Oregon and North Carolina State – became pawns to disrupt the NCAA Tournament committee’s plans. Suddenly, there was a big squeeze on big bids. Five bid thieves winning car bids effectively wiped out the entire seed line for at-large teams, making it a long weekend for teams on the bubble.
This has been going on since 2006. Nothing could have been more difficult for the committee. This is not only because many teams are close, but also because of the number of bid thieves who have eliminated teams. It’s midnight, but the work continues. That’s why they call it madness.
— David Worlock (@DavidWorlock) March 17, 2024
Now that the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket has been revealed, here are six teams that may feel slighted after a wild week of conference tournaments. While many are upset that Virginia won 68 games, many of these innings could have been better overall.
st john’s
Based on metrics, things looked positive for St. John’s earlier this week. The Red Storm were in the top 40 in NET (32 wins) and KenPom (26 wins) and won six straight in the Big East until losing to UConn in the semifinals of the tournament.
However, the additional spots were used up, leaving the Big East with mid-major teams left behind. St. John’s also gave up only one win against an NCAA Tournament team (Creighton), and other teams in the Big East such as Providence and Seton Hall also missed the tournament. At just 4-10 in Quad 1 games, St. John’s probably needed one more win to get into the field.
Surprisingly, Virginia is 44 spots below St. John’s in KenPom’s rankings, and there is a huge gap between the bubble teams that entered and those that dropped out.
seton hall
Seton Hall’s example is due to its five wins in Quad 1, including the most notable wins in the Big East’s University Con front and against Marquette. Not many teams can boast his two wins against the top two seeds.
However, the Pirates’ NET ranking was a very low 67th place, and their non-conference schedule slumped with only a major major win over Missouri and losses to USC, Iowa, and Rutgers.
Despite a dominant win over St. John’s in the regular season at Seton Hall, the Pirates failed to get past the Red Storm for the third time in the Big East Tournament in a game with major bubble implications. They beat all three of St. John’s tries and could have gotten another crack at college. Next year, Seton’s Hall plans to improve his non-conference schedule into the mid-200s.
pit
Most importantly for Pitt, it was a direct win over the University of Virginia, which made the cut despite inferior computer numbers. The Panthers played an easy nonconference schedule and didn’t have any notable wins, but their win at Duke and road win at Virginia match Virginia’s two Quad 1 wins.
With the ACC down this season and Pitt’s non-conference schedule stuck in the .300s, it’s clear the Panthers aren’t winning the key games they need to qualify.
Indiana
This season’s mid-majors fell victim to Championship Week brutality, losing to Drake last weekend. The Sycamores have achieved a national cult following thanks to head coach Josh Schertz’s fun offense and a team of talented and interesting players led by big man Robbie Avila.
Despite having a high NET rating of 29 for the week, Indiana State wasn’t able to get enough quality wins. A 1-4 record against one team in the Quad and 5-5 against the top two teams in the Quad didn’t help the cause in a tough year. It’s awful that Indiana State has a hard time scheduling difficult non-conference games on a regular basis. However, the Sycamores could not help their cause, losing two of three games to Drake in conference play.
providence
Despite six Quad 1 wins and no terrible losses, Providence is out of the NCAA Tournament.
Two wins over Creighton, wins over Marquette and Wisconsin, while losing in Quad 2 is much stronger than many in the bubble claim. The Friars also continued their strong season despite starting forward Bryce Hopkins suffering a season-ending injury early in conference play. Overall, the Big East didn’t do any favors in the bubble this season, with many of Providence’s key wins proving to be against teams eliminated from the NCAA Tournament.
oklahoma
The Big 12 was the best and deepest league in the country, but the Sooners just couldn’t do well enough to break into it. He had a record of just 4-12 in Quad 1 games, with the Sooners gaining momentum late and unable to clean up. Many opportunities to strengthen your stock.
But it’s a little surprising to see a Big 12 team with such high metrics get eliminated. Oklahoma still defeated the No. 2 seed in Iowa State, but their lack of strong wins over other tournament teams likely would have eliminated them.
