Miami (Ohio) on the NCAA Tournament Bubble

Miami (Ohio) made headlines on Sunday, finding itself at a critical point regarding the 2026 NCAA Tournament. After they finished the regular season undefeated, their hopeful journey hit a snag with a tough loss to UMass in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals, sparking a national conversation about their eligibility.

Supporters highlighted the RedHawks’ perfect 31-0 record and their consistent presence in the Associated Press Top 25 as reasons for their inclusion. However, critics were quick to point out that Miami (Ohio) didn’t face any Quad games throughout the season, and their non-conference schedule was ranked 363rd nationwide.

At the end of the day, the committee extended an invitation to Miami (Ohio), granting them the No. 11 seed and a spot in the First Four, where they’ll match up against SMU in Dayton. According to Mike Rutherford, the committee did a reasonably good job, and there was no apparent disrespect towards the teams involved.

So, did the committee make the right call regarding Miami (Ohio) and the bubble? That remains an open question.

Soft Bubbles and Bids

The selection process this year didn’t seem overly harsh. Heading into Sunday, several teams—about seven in total—were contending for four at-large spots. Among them were four from the SEC: Auburn, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas, along with Miami (Ohio), San Diego State, and SMU.

Interestingly, after an unpredictable two seasons where bid thieves disrupted the bubble, Miami (Ohio) became unexpectedly pivotal in turning the MAC into a two-bid league, thus eliminating another team vying for entry.

It’s worth noting that the RedHawks benefitted from a rather lackluster bubble this year. By March, many bubble teams were struggling, often finishing the season with subpar records.

Some were particularly impacted by an early championship week that swept away previous contenders. Teams like Indiana faced seven consecutive losses, while Cincinnati made the decision to fire coach Wes Miller due to disappointing results. Stanford also faced elimination at the hands of Pitt in the ACC first round.

Ultimately, the four teams that did not make the cut for the 2026 NCAA Tournament were Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, and Indiana. Their exclusion reflects how bleak the situation was for reliable teams.

Oklahoma and Auburn, despite having reasonable metrics in their power conference, fell short with lackluster win-loss records, which made them less appealing to the selection committee.

As for Miami (Ohio), they didn’t engage in any quad games this year, making it difficult to assess their tournament readiness. The committee chose to admit a mid-major with a weak schedule over a power-conference team that had a solid Quad One win.

A New Benchmark for Mid-Majors?

The acceptance of Miami (Ohio) into the tournament could set a significant precedent for mid-major teams going forward. Just two years ago, Indiana State faced disappointment despite achieving the highest NET ranking (No. 29) ever for a team left out of the tournament. In contrast, the RedHawks entered the 2026 tournament ranked 93rd.

In fact, the 2024 Sycamores had a stronger strength of schedule than the current RedHawks, who managed just one notable win amid a sea of mediocre opponents.

This season, Miami’s most impressive non-conference victory was against Wright State, ranked 140th. Their only win against a Top 130 team occurred at home against Akron, the MAC’s automatic bid winner.

On the flip side, Drake had a fairly more competitive season, notching eight wins against teams in KenPom’s top 130, contrasting sharply with Miami’s single win. They also took on tough opponents, suffering losses to teams like Alabama and Michigan State, a luxury Miami (Ohio) didn’t have as top-tier teams often avoid strong mid-majors.

Ultimately, it seems that Miami (Ohio) benefited greatly from a weak bubble this year, and while it’s unlikely that another team with such a soft schedule will find itself in the NCAA Tournament anytime soon, the RedHawks’ undefeated record might pave the way for mid-majors struggling for recognition.

Some passionate college basketball fans are advocating that a strong mid-major should emerge to boost their chances of making the tournament. The upcoming game against Miami (Ohio) could ignite a debate on the merits of mid-majors versus high-majors in the coming weeks.

Notable Teams Missing the Cut

Auburn

Ranked 38th by KenPom, Auburn did not secure an NCAA Tournament spot. Their standout moment was a win against Florida, but with a 17-16 record, they fell short of securing an at-large bid.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma also missed out, no. 40 in the KenPom rankings. They had a strong finish to the season with six straight victories but were taken down by Arkansas in the SEC quarterfinals. They’ll surely regret a January loss to Missouri State, who did make the cut.

San Diego State

San Diego State ended up at 22-11 but lacked significant wins, with only a victory against Utah State as their highlight. A major loss to Michigan early in the season didn’t help their case.

Cincinnati

Cincinnati, ranked 46th on KenPom, managed to improve toward the end of the season but stumbled to a significant defeat against Eastern Michigan, which marked the end of their run. Head Coach Wes Miller’s firing suggests even they understood the dwindling chances of making the tournament.

Indiana

Indiana seemed likely to secure a spot for most of the season before falling apart, losing six of their last seven games.

Stanford

Stanford’s loss to Pitt in the ACC Tournament ended any remaining hopes of competing, depriving fans of seeing promising freshman point guard Ebuka Okolie on the court.