Analyzing election results, especially primary results, is a professional risk. As a former chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), I have long watched pundits struggle to extrapolate national trends from each election, with its own local dynamics, personalities, and events.
But progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman was defeated in a landslide by Westchester County Mayor George Latimer. NY-16 Nancy Goroff and journalist John Avlon NY-1 It provides some insight to the broader national electorate.
Here are six lessons I’ve learned from my beloved New York City.
1. Pragmatism triumphs over purity. Both races pitted moderate candidates against left-wing stalwarts: As county mayor, Mr. Latimer was better known for paving potholes than for his positions on the Highway Trust Fund; Mr. Avlon used to write speeches for Rudy Giuliani and, as a CNN journalist, had built a reputation as a political independent.
In contrast, Bowman has long intense Image as a member teamGorlov is Cutting a lane More to the left of Avlon, he frequently criticized his Democratic allegiance. Ultimately, voters in both districts rejected partisan purity and supported candidates seen as more centrist, in elections that were meant to reduce polarization, not increase it.
2. Money is important. The Bowman-Latimer race The most expensive congressional primary in historyApproximately $25 million was spent (of which more than $14 million was spent on Only one external groupone of the founders of the pro-Israel United Democracy Project. I live nearly 40 miles and across several bridges from Route 16 in New York City, but I have not been able to escape the expensive TV commercials lambasting Bowman. Constantly, relentlessly, relentlessly. Bowman has been bombarded with a flood of campaign cash that has proved insurmountable.
At NY-1, Avlon initially outperformed Goroff financially. $1 million in the first 40 days Goroff eventually caught up with Avlon and even surpassed him in fundraising advantages, funding his campaign. $1.2 million loan But Avlon remained relatively even throughout the broadcast and was able to advance his campaign with a superior ground game.
Although Avlon did not enjoy the same economic advantage as Latimer, winning campaigns on both sides were driven by passionate fundraising efforts that proved essential.
3. Context matters. Primaries are often boring events unless the candidates are wrongly positioned in the headlines. Bowman took an outspoken (some might say hardline) stance on Israel in the wake of the brutal Hamas massacre on October 7. You don’t have to be Jewish to find his comments insensitive at best and inflammatory at worst.
Bowman was well-suited for his position, but it ultimately proved to be at odds with his constituency. Extreme rhetoricWithout the war in Gaza and Bowman’s self-defining rhetoric, this might not have been a race at all.
Also, note to candidates: setting off a fire alarm in the Capitol while a vote is taking place (whether intentionally to disrupt proceedings or by accidentally walking through the doors) is not a good political strategy. 9/11 conspiracy theories.
4. Candidates must fit the constituency. There’s a persistent debate within the Democratic Party about whether the party should move left or right. The correct answer is that Democratic candidates should simply fit their electorate.
Westchester and Suffolk counties are typical suburbs. Most Democrats there are left-leaning, but not too forceful. They don’t want their representatives to make ideological points; they want their representatives to solve their problems. And they want general-election candidates who can build crossover coalitions that can blunt the MAGA movement on Capitol Hill.
In both elections, Latimer and Avlon focused on real-life issues rather than alarmist progressive debate. They ran as moderate problem solvers, the type of candidates New York City suburbanites typically choose. They won because they stuck to the makeup of their districts.
5. Suburban battlegrounds are important to Biden… but not all of them. The New York primary has no impact on the presidential election. This is New York and Trump will lose to just about anyone the streets elect.
But the primary election reflects the importance of moderate suburban voters in seven presidential battleground states, including Bucks County, Pennsylvania, and Eaton County, Michigan.
It would be a mistake to see NY-16 and NY-1 as perfect laboratories for Biden’s 2024 campaign. Long Island and Westchester each have their own unique political characteristics. But it is true that many of the voters that Latimer and Avlon successfully recruit have the same temperament as the voters Biden desperately needs in the battleground states: pragmatic and not overly politically sensitive. These voters will decide the 2024 election, and we’ll be trying to predict their movements over the next five months.
6. Finally. Sure, the political world was glued to these primaries. Cable TV was glued to them (I was on one show on the night of the primaries). But for the vast majority of New Yorkers in Westchester, Yonkers and Long Island, there was a much more dramatic battle last night: the Mets beat the Yankees.
Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives for eight terms and served as Chairman of the Democratic House Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. Steve Israel.
