The Return of the Tariff Party

For quite some time, Republicans have viewed tariffs as a kind of ideological misstep, a departure from Reagan-era principles. Pat Buchanan labeled it A Great Betrayal in his 1998 book, indicating that the GOP had turned its back on economic nationalism, which was once a cornerstone of the party.

However, that perspective is shifting. The base of the Republican Party seems to be reconnecting with its roots in America’s First Economic Nationalism.

Recent polling reflects this change. In a July survey from YouGov, 70% of Republicans expressed support for Donald Trump’s tariffs, with 41% stating they “strongly support” them. Among his 2024 voters, the numbers are even more pronounced: 79% back tariffs, and half express strong support. This isn’t just a fringe opinion anymore; it’s becoming a new consensus.

Another YouGov survey on trade policies reinforces this trend. When asked about the impact of tariffs on Chinese imports on the American economy, 58% of Republicans believed they would be beneficial, while only 10% thought they would harm it. Furthermore, 69% of Republicans feel that the U.S. is being exploited by current international trade agreements. The once-accepted notion of free trade as a pillar of elite GOP ideology is waning.

The poll, conducted between July 8th and 11th, indicates that 34% of Republicans think tariffs should be increased further, while 28% believe they should stay as they are. In contrast, 60% of Democrats are in favor of lowering tariffs.

Even with warnings about potential price hikes due to tariffs, support among Republican voters holds strong. Only 23% believe tariffs would definitely drive prices up, and half think they probably won’t. This perspective is informed by past experiences; Trump’s initial tariffs didn’t trigger inflation, and in fact, many prices fell. The latest round of tariffs is coinciding with low inflation, raising questions among critics regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies and fears of price increases due to tariffs. What some describe as a “trade war” is increasingly being viewed by voters as a necessary defensive strategy, addressing years of industrial decline.

Among those who advocate for higher tariffs, a significant 81% are willing to accept increased prices for American consumers. Even among Trump supporters favoring tariff hikes, 87% believe they should rise, even if it leads to higher costs. This means concerns about tariff-induced price increases are unlikely to diminish Republican support.

Displacing the Pro-Import Republicans

In the meantime, the anti-tariff factions within the Republican establishment are fading away. Figures who were once synonymous with staunch free trade, like Senator Ben Sasse, Jeff Flake, Orrin Hatch, Bob Corker, and Pat Toomey, have wrapped up their public careers. Even Mitch McConnell seems to be distancing himself from this past. Tom Tillis, one of the last vocal opponents of tariffs, recently announced he won’t seek reelection. The post-Reagan era consensus is beginning to unravel, and the party’s future is being shaped by voters who recall its previous successes.

Historical victories span from President Abraham Lincoln to William McKinley and Calvin Coolidge; the GOP was known as the “tariff party.” Tariffs not only protected American labor but also financed the federal government while bolstering industrial growth. Between 1860 and 1930, the GOP secured 13 out of 15 presidential wins. The only Democratic victories during that time occurred when the Republican Party was fractured. Tariffs established a strong industrial base, transitioning America from an agricultural society to a manufacturing powerhouse.

Other nations followed similar paths. Germany under Bismarck adopted protectionist policies and surpassed the UK in industrial performance. Japan restricted U.S. goods, prompting responses even from Ronald Reagan. No nation can achieve industrial superpower status solely through free trade. As Buchanan noted in A Great Betrayal, “Behind the tariff walls constructed by Washington, Hamilton, Clay, Lincoln, and other Republican presidents, the United States emerged as the largest industrial force the world has ever known.”

That perspective is 25 years old, yet today, Republicans are revisiting that history and the rationale behind it. While protectionism may still carry a negative connotation, related policies are now mainstream within the GOP. The U.S. commands access to the world’s largest consumer market, a strategic advantage that should be leveraged. Just as top state universities charge higher tuition for out-of-state students, The U.S. can set terms for market access. Tariffs aim not to isolate the country but rather to maximize our influence by bringing production back home.

This isn’t merely theoretical—it’s happening. If tariffs raise the cost of importing microchips, foreign companies may either forfeit access to the U.S. market or choose to establish fabs on American soil. Over the next few years, we might witness a revival of manufacturing on our coasts as businesses look to avoid the impact of tariffs by producing domestically.

Republican voters grasp this reality, while elite arguments about cheaper electronics seem distant from the struggles faced by communities where factories have closed. The emerging consensus on the right is based on sound economics and robust politics. We shift the tax burden toward goods produced and labor done in the U.S., applying taxes on imports. This approach allows us to rebuild our industrial base, enhance economic independence, reinforce the connection between economic security and national security, and prioritize America.

Reclaiming the Old Flag

Buchanan cautioned over two decades ago that this resurgence might be rocky, yet the path forward is promising. The numbers support this narrative. The GOP was founded under the banner of economic nationalism, and after a lengthy detour, that banner is once again being raised.

If anyone thinks this revival is merely temporary, they may be surprised—tariffs appear to be more than just Trump’s experiment; they have become foundational principles for Republicans.

The economist who originally coined the term “Chinese shock” is now highlighting a new challenge. This time, it’s not about cheap labor; it involves the dominance of Beijing in high-tech and strategic industries, such as semiconductors, AI, green energy, and quantum computing. If the initial “shock” hollowed out American manufacturing, the next one threatens to undermine American leadership in cutting-edge technology. This makes tariffs even more vital. As the next challenge arises, Republicans are gearing up to respond with the very tools their party historically defended: tariffs, increased production, and a focus on national strength.