NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament Updates
The NCAA Division I Select Committee for the Women’s Basketball Tournament is introducing new metrics this season to help determine the placement of teams in the 68-team bracket.
One significant metric that’s gained traction is known as Wins Above Bubble, or WAB. This has been prevalent in men’s basketball for some time and was formally adopted by the men’s selection committee last year.
Calvin Wetzel discussed this metric in the Her Hoop Statistics Newsletter for 2021. Essentially, it assesses whether a team is winning more than what is predicted for average bubble teams against a similar schedule.
The NCAA clarifies the metric by explaining that the average bubble team is expected to win a certain number of games against a team’s schedule. If Team A wins more than this average, they receive a positive WAB rating. For instance, if the expectation is for a bubble team to win 19 games and Team A wins 20, they earn a +1.0 WAB rating.
In short, this metric values teams for competing well against tough opponents.
Jackie Carson, who is a senior vice-committee member for women’s basketball at the ACC, supports this metric. He mentioned that he had a conversation with a selection committee member earlier this year about how schools can improve their scheduling.
Virginia Tech, under first-year head coach Megan Duffy, concluded the past season with a record of 19-13 and 9-9 in conference play. They were ranked 47th in the NET standings but achieved notable wins against seven top 100 teams, surpassing teams like Washington and Columbia, which received significant tournament bids.
Carson expressed enthusiasm for the new metric, stating, “We need to win the games we should win. But losing to a strong ACC opponent still maintains a competitive schedule compared to other leagues.”
Virginia Tech recorded three wins against NCAA tournament-bound teams while competing in the ACC, including victories over Georgia Tech, Louisville, and California.
Reflecting on the season, Duffy remarked, “We had some remarkable wins, but a few slipped away from us. Each game presents a learning opportunity. The expectations are significant; we aim high but are still figuring out what that truly means during tournament time.”
Last season, eight teams from the ACC qualified for the NCAA tournament, but Virginia Tech was left on the bubble. They’ve since bolstered their lineup by adding three transfers from other Power 4 programs and are also welcoming back their top two scorers from last season.
The combination of fresh talent and this new metric may pave the way for Virginia Tech’s return to the tournament next season.
