- The Australian dollar holds steady as retail sales experienced a rise of 1.2% month-over-month in June, significantly surpassing the anticipated 0.4% increase.
- The NBS Manufacturing Purchase Managers Index in China dropped to 49.3, while the non-manufacturing PMI eased to 50.1 in July.
- The Federal Reserve maintained benchmark interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% during July.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) seemed to pause on Thursday, ending its five-day streak of gains. The AUD/USD pair maintained its position, influenced by recent economic updates from Australia and its key trading partner, China.
In June, retail sales in Australia climbed by 1.2% compared to May, which was revised from 0.2% to 0.5%. This figure exceeded market expectations, which were set at 0.4%. Meanwhile, quarterly retail sales increased to 0.3% in the second quarter, compared to just 0.1% in the first quarter.
In terms of manufacturing, China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in July, down from June’s 49.7, which was in line with market forecasts. The non-manufacturing PMI, however, eased to 50.1, slightly below the expected 50.3 and June’s 50.5.
Australian dollar rises as the US dollar cools off
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which assesses the dollar against six major currencies, has halted its upward trend, stabilizing around 99.80. The dollar gained traction following the recent Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady.
- After the policy meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the central bank has not yet determined its next steps for September and indicated that it might take time to gauge the tariffs’ effects on consumer prices.
- From April to June, the US GDP saw an annual growth rate of 3.0%, which outperformed the expected 2.4%, bouncing back from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter.
- A new trade agreement emerged between the US and the European Union, establishing a 15% tariff on most European goods effective from August 1, thereby resolving a month-long standoff.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent mentioned ongoing discussions between the US and China regarding a tariff ceasefire ahead of a two-week deadline, while noting the potential impact on the AUD given the close economic ties.
- On Tuesday, China’s Finance Minister Lang Foun announced plans to bolster financial support aimed at stimulating domestic consumption and mitigating economic challenges, signaling a shift towards aggressive fiscal policy.
- Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% quarterly in the second quarter, which was slightly lower than the first quarter’s 0.9% and below the expected 0.8%. Yearly CPI inflation eased to 2.1%, down from 2.2% and lower than the 2.4% market consensus.
- The monthly CPI rose by 1.9% in June, compared to a previous increase of 2.1%. The trimmed mean CPI for Q2 was up by 0.6% and compared to market expectations of 0.7% for the quarter.
After recent lows, Australian dollar trends near 0.6450
As of Thursday, the AUD/USD is trading around 0.6450. Technical analysis from the daily chart indicates a bearish sentiment, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) dropping below the 50 threshold. Moreover, the pair sits beneath the nine-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting weaker short-term momentum.
On the downside, the AUD/USD found support at a monthly low of 0.6426 from July 30. Should it fall below this level, it might test a two-month low of 0.6372 reached on June 23.
The AUD/USD initially targets the 50-day EMA resistance at 0.6498, with a secondary target at the nine-day EMA of 0.6506. Climbing past these levels could boost short- and medium-term momentum, potentially pushing the pair toward the eight-month high of 0.6625.
AUD/USD: Daily Overview
Current Australian dollar exchange rates
Below is a snapshot of the current Australian dollar (AUD) exchange rates against major currencies, showing it as the strongest versus the US dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.21% | -0.14% | -0.36% | 0.00% | -0.24% | -0.22% | -0.18% | |
| EUR | 0.21% | 0.05% | -0.15% | 0.21% | -0.05% | -0.00% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | -0.05% | -0.20% | 0.16% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.36% | 0.15% | 0.20% | 0.37% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.22% | |
| CAD | -0.00% | -0.21% | -0.16% | -0.37% | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.17% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.11% | -0.13% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.20% | 0.23% | -0.05% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | 0.18% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.22% | 0.17% | -0.12% | -0.05% |
The heatmap illustrates the fluctuations between major currencies, allowing users to compare changes effectively.
