Key Takeaways:
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The trading volume for Ether Perpetual Futures has outstripped that of Bitcoin, signaling a notable shift in market interest.
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Bearish RSI divergence suggests short-term exhaustion.
Since December 2025, Ether (ETH) has been hovering just under the $4,000 resistance level, and it’s uncertain if traders will breach it anytime soon. Overcoming the $4,000 barrier has proven tough, but one of the Bulls’ significant targets sits around $4,500, marked by the +1σ Active Realized Price Band. This metric tracks average ETH costs and the activity on the network.
According to data from GlassNode, this particular level has acted as a ceiling between the highs seen in March 2024 and the cycles of 2020-21. Previous sustained breakouts at this line have often led to swift upward momentum, though they can also bring along risks of overheating and structural volatility.
The recent momentum is also evident in the ETH futures markets. Cointelegraph highlighted that, for the first time since 2022, Ether’s futures volumes now surpass Bitcoin’s – marking a significant shift in trading focus toward ETH. Additionally, the trader known as the Byzantine General recently adjusted his short-term outlook, noting,
“I think ETH is wrong to get short-term drawbacks. It’s too strong and refuses to show any significant corrections… it just looks like the right moment to send it.”
A liquidation map for Ether shows a dense cluster of short liquidations just over the $4,000 mark. A decisive movement above this point could trigger the liquidation of positions totaling up to $930 million and may drive prices up to $4,500.
Related: Some Ethereum traders anticipate a price surge to $16k in this cycle.
Bearish Divergence Heightens Short-Term Focus on ETH
While bullish momentum dominates the narrative, critical technical signals could potentially disrupt the current rally. In both four-hour and daily timeframes, Ether prices have hit new local peaks, yet the relative strength index (RSI) displays no corresponding movement, indicating a bearish divergence.
This bearish divergence might serve as an early warning of buyer fatigue, reminiscent of past local top patterns. Looking at the bigger picture, the daily chart highlights a persistent bearish sentiment that hasn’t fully resolved itself since ETH was above $3,500. If it fails to maintain prices above $4,000 with strong volume, a short-term pullback to a significant support zone is possible.
In the event of a bearish correction, immediate support on the lower timeframe lies just beneath $3,700, where a narrow fair value gap (FVG) is observable. However, ongoing bearish pressure could test long-term FVGs ranging from $3,200 to $3,300, risking the integrity of longer-term structures.
Related: ETH’s volume analysis checks in on pivots with Altcoins: GlassNode
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All trading decisions carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research.
