Syria’s Post-War Return Plans and Ongoing Struggles
A senior UN official informed the Security Council that organizational estimates suggest over 2 million Syrians might return home by December, following the decline of Bashar Assad’s regime.
Out of this number, 1.5 million are thought to be individuals who were displaced internally since the war erupted in 2011, with the conflict reaching its height nearly 14 years later. Additionally, around 700,000 of those expected to return are refugees from other countries.
The United Nations Office for International Migration (IOM) reported that more than six million Syrians fled during the Civil War, while another 7.4 million were displaced within Syria itself. This means that the conflict has affected over 13 million people, with the IOM estimating that more than 16 million Syrians required humanitarian aid to survive by the end of the war.
The statistics presented aimed to motivate Security Council members to prioritize humanitarian support and invest in Syria’s rebuilding efforts. Edem Wosornu, who is the Director of Operations and Advocacy for the United Nations Humanitarian Agreement (OCHA), expressed concern that such high return rates put additional pressure on already strained services like healthcare, water, and education.
Wosornu briefed on Syria’s dire humanitarian situation, emphasizing the shortages of basic necessities and the recent sectarian violence between the Druze community in Sweida and the Sunni Bedouins.
The regime of Assad fell in December after a swift military campaign executed by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), an al-Qaeda offshoot. Following the assault on Aleppo, HTS leaders seized control of Damascus, resulting in the dissolution of Assad’s forces. Assad and his family fled to Moscow in early December 2024.
Now, HTS has effectively positioned itself as the governing authority, with its leader, Ahmed al-Shara, pivoting from his extremist past. He has begun advocating for foreign investment to facilitate the country’s reconstruction, consistently voicing that his administration would respect the rights of Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities.
The conclusion of the war, along with the backing from Iran for the Assad regime, has prompted many Syrians living abroad to return, some of whom feel pressure from host nations, particularly Turkey, where certain local politicians have even offered free bus tickets to refugees. Wosornu noted that approximately 700,000 people have returned since December.
The United Nations has called for communities to provide $3.2 billion in support by year-end, also expressing gratitude for efforts to ease unilateral sanctions. The Trump administration led the way in lifting certain sanctions against the Assad regime, which allowed HTS to shed its terrorist label and receive personal endorsements from Trump. Interestingly, during a meeting in May at Saudi Arabia’s request, Sharaa was described by Trump as “young” and “attractive,” with assurances for a hands-off approach from Washington in Syria’s recovery process.
The Saudi government has a lot to gain from lifting sanctions on Syria. Sharaa recently hosted a major economic event that attracted over 130 investors from Saudi Arabia, claiming to have secured more than $6 billion in commitments to help rebuild infrastructure, establish manufacturing hubs, and create jobs. However, while investments are primarily directed at Damascus, rural areas in Syria continue to face significant barriers for international companies.
Wosornu also reported on the situation in Sweida. Clashes broke out after Bedouin tribes confronted members of the Druze community, prompting attacks that risk escalating into more severe violence. The Israeli government intervened with airstrikes in Damascus to support the Druze, who sought state protection. In response, Sharaa condemned the violence against Israel and celebrated the Bedouins in a national address, even deploying buses to evacuate Bedouin communities.
“Recent violence in Sweida has displaced about 175,000 people,” Wosornu stated, highlighting that reports of severe physical attacks, forced evictions, and psychological abuse continue to circulate, alongside the looting and destruction of homes.
Wosornu urged the Security Council to facilitate humanitarian aid for those affected by these unfolding issues.
