A national conversation is unfolding regarding the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service, particularly its role in predicting severe weather events. Recent events in Kerr County, Texas, serve as a reminder of how crucial the service is for timely and accurate forecasts in the Texas Hill Country.
In the immediate aftermath of disasters, it’s essential to examine the government’s response and create detailed timelines of these events. However, there’s also a pressing need to discuss long-term investments in climate and weather resilience. This entails focusing on NOAA laboratories and research centers that are dedicated to foundational science. These agencies play a key role in life-saving forecasting and warnings, yet the proposed budget for 2026 raises concerns about potential cuts.
The budget proposal from the Trump administration includes plans to close NOAA labs and cooperative research institutions, which are vital for marine and atmospheric studies. As discussions about budget allocations commence, the implications for NOAA research funding become a significant point of contention.
Implementing the president’s budget as it stands could severely undermine NOAA’s research capabilities, particularly in precipitation studies. This would hinder the agency’s ability to innovate and manage weather and climate models that are essential for military operations, businesses, and community agencies such as Camp Mystic in Texas.
Take for instance the National Storm Research Institute in Norman, Oklahoma. This lab, established with the University of Oklahoma, has improved the delivery of flash flood warnings through the Hydrograph Project (Flash). The project has doubled the accuracy of these warnings and enhanced spatial resolution considerably, allowing predictors to identify severe flash floods with extended lead times.
Moreover, NOAA’s laboratories have been integral in developing advanced hurricane prediction models, like the Hurricane Analysis and Prediction System. This system exemplifies NOAA’s ongoing commitment to refine forecasts for potentially devastating natural disasters.
Looking back at 2024, five tropical cyclones inflicted over $1 billion in damages in the U.S. NOAA’s predictions suggest that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could see several major hurricanes. The challenge of forecasting hurricanes has only increased, especially with instances of “fast strengthening,” where wind speeds significantly escalate in a short timeframe.
The enhancements made through the hurricane analysis systems have saved lives and protected infrastructure since their implementation in June 2023. They proved particularly effective in predicting rapid intensification of storms like Hurricanes Helen and Milton, with the latter reaching Category 5 strength at one point.
This level of success didn’t come by chance; it was the result of dedicated investments over several years, drawing from expertise across NOAA’s various research centers.
However, the current administration, along with its congressional supporters, seems to underestimate the need for continuous investment in NOAA, hoping to reap the benefits of well-developed products without the necessary groundwork in basic research.
Historically, federally funded scientific research has shown that foundational studies lead to important innovations. As Vannevar Bush pointed out in a landmark report, “Basic research leads to new knowledge.” It’s a simple truth: we cannot expect the benefits of science without nurturing its roots.
Congress must ensure sufficient funding for NOAA and its vital research initiatives to safeguard American lives, property, and infrastructure.
