My last EUR/USD analysis on July 22 didn’t play out, as the price didn’t show any bearish action at the initial resistance levels.
Today’s EUR/USD Signal
Risk is set at 0.75%.
Trades must be placed before 5 PM today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Consider a short entry following a quick reversal on the H1 time frame after the price touches $1.1617, $1.1633, or $1.1668.
- Set a stop loss one pip above the local swing high.
- If the trade reaches 20 pips in profit, a stop will be triggered to secure the stop loss.
- Upon hitting 20 pips of profit, secure 50% of the position and set the remaining portion to the stop loss.
Long Trade Ideas
- A long entry could be initiated after a bullish price action reverses on the H1 timeframe when the price approaches $1.1515, $1.1499, or $1.1484.
- Place a stop loss one pip below the local swing low.
- Similar to short trades, if reaching 20 pips profit, a stop should be placed to preserve gain.
- Take half the position as profit at 20 pips, moving the rest to secure it.
The classic “price action inversion” can be effectively identified by observing hourly candle closes, such as pinbars or dojis. By paying attention to price movements at specified levels, opportunities can be seized.
EUR/USD Analysis
A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that the EUR/USD pair was looking bullish in the long run, prompting thoughts of a long position from support. While the price initially rose, it proved impractical since the low was only a few pips from the nearest support.
Last week, after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish comments, the dollar gained ground, which shifted the dynamics markedly by pushing the price down to $1.1400.
There was a modest recovery; however, as it approached the key level of $1.1600, the upward movement seemed to lose steam.
Following the release of disappointing U.S. economic data last Friday, the dollar weakened again, prompting expectations of a potential interest rate cut by 0.25% in the upcoming Fed meeting in September.
This situation supports bullish scenarios from both fundamental and emotional standpoints.
Technically, the case for being bullish is further strengthened due to a cluster of support levels tightly packed around $1.1500. This area could serve as a solid support zone.
Today, I see good potential for a long trade from a bounce at any of the support levels beneath $1.1500. The more times these support levels hold, the more robust the potential trades may be.
No significant news is expected for the Euro today; however, for the U.S. dollar, ISM Services PMI data will be made public at 3 PM.
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