MIAMI — The election of President Trump in November revealed a turning point for Miami-Dade County, which had leaned blue for nearly three decades. It became evident that Florida was shifting to a more conservative stance.
Evidence of this political transformation in southern Florida has been accumulating over several electoral cycles. The most notable moment was Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) victory in 2022, flipping Metropolitan County for the first time in over 20 years.
Steve Cher, a Florida-based Democratic strategist who managed Obama’s 2008 campaign in the state, shared his perspective: “At parties outside Florida, especially in the Democratic circles, we all thought back during Obama’s 2012 win and Hillary’s 2016 campaign that Miami had solidified as a progressive stronghold.”
He continued, expressing concern about the perception of socialism among those who moved to Florida to escape crime: “When the extreme left promotes ideas like ‘democratic socialism,’ it really resonates differently with families who left everything behind for safety.”
A veteran Democratic operative commented that the loss of Miami-Dade was a significant shock for the party. There was a sense of foreboding that something was amiss, but the loss felt particularly acute for those invested in the state’s future.
Florida Democrats are recognizing issues that stem from years of neglect following Obama’s victory in 2012, but they remain determined to shift back toward a competitive, purple status. They’re actually ramping up their efforts.
Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, emphasized in an interview that they are “still rebuilding” and highlighted an 8% increase in Democratic voter turnout from the 2020 to 2024 elections. She pointed out successes at local levels, like Daniela Levine Cava’s (D) substantial re-election in 2024, even amid broader challenges in the county.
However, Fried also acknowledged there’s still a significant amount of work to be done, particularly in bringing resources into the state.
The decline in Democratic voter affiliation has been steep since 2020, while Republican registration has surged, surpassing 1.5 million by late June 2021.
Observers believe this shift in party allegiance is due to multiple factors, including a surge of Republican voters during the pandemic. Trump’s presence in Palm Beach attracted numerous key Republican operatives and supporters.
Some Democrats remain skeptical about substantial gains. Cher remarked, “I don’t really believe there will be much difference in our organizational efforts.” He noted ongoing concerns among donors about the party’s current trajectory. Still, he hinted at the possibility of gradual gains in future cycles.
He suggested that successful outcomes in the 2026 elections could help convince hesitant donors about a positive direction moving forward, particularly in improving relations with Hispanic voters.
With Trump’s recent remarks hitting the airwaves, strategists feel this is a prime opportunity for Democrats to regain momentum nationally.
Cher noted, “If Republicans continue down their current path and Trump maintains a low approval rating, it could lead Florida voters to feel it’s time for change, and that change may involve challenging the Democrats.”
He added that the state’s issues are further complicated by the ongoing affordability crisis, a problem stemming from nearly three decades of Republican governance.
Despite potential opportunities, strategists warn that it remains a tough task for Democrats to win back voters anytime soon.
“I live here, and I have to be an optimist… but I am also realistic; it’s challenging, and there’s much to accomplish,” Cher said.
Efforts are underway, including the Florida Democrats’ Pendurum Initiative, a year-round organizational program. Fried highlighted a grassroots initiative aimed at listening to voters in rural areas.
Even minor victories in 2024 could yield important lessons from the overall setbacks Democrats experienced this year. Fried pointed out that despite spending over $1 billion on nationwide media, many voters expressed confusion about the party’s message.
“We really missed the mark by not engaging everyday Floridians who don’t see us on mainstream news,” she reflected.
Engaging with voters is critical, especially as Democrats have faced challenges motivating turnout recently.
“We need to unite around a focused and consistent message that addresses the Republican-made affordability crisis,” one strategist stated.
Stakeholders believe that Democrats—both the party and its donors—must invest significantly in Florida to reclaim power.
“Florida continues to play a critical role in electoral outcomes, so we can’t afford to write it off. If Democrats abandon Florida or Texas, they might as well concede the White House,” they added.
