Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are engaged in a tight race for the GOP Senate nomination, according to a recent poll. Cornyn holds a slim lead of 1 percentage point, garnering 30% of the votes compared to Paxton’s 29%, with a notable 37% of voters still undecided, as reported by Emerson College. This latest survey marks a shift from previous polls where Paxton had a more substantial lead. Notably, Cornyn’s advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, which is 4.4%.
With just seven months until the primary, the competition has intensified, especially with many voters still uncertain about their choice. Spencer Kimball, the Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted that this is the first public survey showcasing a significant tension between the incumbent and the Attorney General.
Supporters of Cornyn have begun to invest millions in positive advertisements to highlight his track record. They are planning to allocate even more resources as the race progresses. The Pro-Cornyn Super PAC, which reflects a conservative majority, has already spent over $3 million by the end of July. Chris Lacivita, who played a role in Donald Trump’s campaign, is advising this group.
The Senate Leader Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, informed donors that it may take between $25 million and $75 million to help incumbents navigate a contentious primary.
The Emerson survey also indicated that in a hypothetical matchup, both Cornyn and Paxton would outperform Democrat Colin Allred, though Cornyn has a narrower lead and is trailing behind Paxton by slightly fewer points.
Recent polling from the Daily Republican Senate Committee hinted at potential success for Texas Democrat Jasmine Crockett if she enters the race, as she has already captured 15% support despite her inexperience in statewide elections.
To avert a runoff—something that can occur if no candidate secures over 50%—both Cornyn and Paxton are vying for Donald Trump’s endorsement. However, the former president has yet to indicate when he might weigh in on this critical contest.
Polling suggests Trump’s backing could be pivotal, especially since 37% of Republican voters remain uncertain in their choice. Kimball highlighted that among those undecided, Trump enjoys a 73% approval rating, indicating his influence could be decisive in this close race.
The recent Emerson College poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday and targeted likely Republican voters. Past polls earlier this year revealed that Paxton had a substantial lead over Cornyn, but dynamics are clearly shifting. Despite a previous May poll showing Paxton ahead by 16 points, the current survey reflects a different landscape.
No response was provided by Cornyn or Paxton’s representatives regarding the Emerson College poll before publication.
