Those sniffles you might be experiencing? They’re probably not just a summer cold—COVID-19 is making a strong comeback.
It’s anticipated that the situation could worsen before it gets better. Some experts forecast that the virus rates will keep climbing as we navigate through this summer wave of infections.
Jay Weiland, an infectious disease modeler, remarked on social media that he expects the summer COVID-19 wave to peak in early September. So, it’s a good time to stick to preventive measures, like wearing masks in crowded areas and ensuring proper hand hygiene.
Jenn Dowd, a demography and population health professor at the University of Oxford, mentioned Weiland’s model in her newsletter, discussing data that reflects rising COVID infections in nearly all states, based on current statistics from the CDC. She noted that since these data can lag by a week, the actual numbers may already be higher, coinciding with Weiland’s predicted peak in early September—right as kids return to school.
However, it’s important to approach these predictions with caution. COVID has, after all, shown itself to be quite unpredictable over recent years.
“A September peak is just a best guess based on what we see now, but we can’t really know the full scope or duration of this upswing until it’s behind us,” Dowd shared via email.
Fortunately, COVID levels appear lower than they were last summer, according to wastewater monitoring and hospitalization data. Still, the back-to-school period may exacerbate any viral spread, so we should gain clearer insights in the next few weeks, Dowd added.
The models for predicting COVID spikes are, admittedly, not perfect frameworks, but according to Jessica Malaty Rivera, an infectious disease epidemiologist, they still provide useful information.
“Historically, we’ve always seen a summer wave followed by a back-to-school surge in respiratory illnesses. It’s not surprising that they’re looking at both historical data and current wastewater findings to gauge how many people could be carrying COVID right now,” Malaty Rivera said.
Still, she cautioned that wastewater data has its limitations.
“You can’t automatically assume that the virus present in wastewater is infectious,” she explained.
Wastewater analysis can’t differentiate between active viruses and non-infectious remnants from past infections. Early on in the pandemic, for example, PCR tests would often return positive long after recovery, she noted.
So, while we currently see a surge in COVID cases, and anticipate another bump as children head back to school and vacationers return, Malaty Rivera advises caution.
“Historically, fall and the return to school have brought an increase in respiratory illnesses, and COVID is now part of that cycle,” she mentioned. “The summer surge is expected, and another increase is aligned with the evidence.”
If you find yourself feeling unwell during this summer surge, the CDC recommends staying home and isolating from others until you’re fever-free and your symptoms are improving for at least 24 hours. After that, even if you rejoin daily activities, you should still take precautions like wearing a mask and practicing good hygiene for five additional days.
Malaty Rivera suggests going a step further, as “resolving symptoms” can mean different things to different people. What’s normal for one person can be very different for another.
“No fever is not the only sign of being contagious,” she added.
“If you’re testing positive on a rapid antigen test, that indicates you’re likely still contagious. It’s crucial to isolate and wear a mask socially.”
Fresh air is fine, but proximity to others should be minimized, she advises.
“People shouldn’t be unmasked in gatherings unless they have a negative antigen test,” she stated.
You might also consider consulting with a doctor regarding eligibility for Paxlovid, an antiviral treatment for COVID-19, if you’re feeling unwell.
As for preventing COVID infections, now might be an opportune time to get an updated vaccine if you haven’t yet this year, especially before any eligibility changes occur.
If you’re over 65 or immunocompromised, and it’s been six months since your last vaccination, you should qualify for another shot.
In addition to vaccinations, when COVID is prevalent, it’s wise to heighten standard precautions for respiratory illness, according to Dowd.
This might mean focusing on good ventilation while socializing, staying home when you’re ill, and strategically using masks in places like crowded travel settings.
Even though COVID levels are currently lower compared to previous summers, it’s still a serious illness, capable of causing significant complications or long COVID.
So, while you take steps to stay safe this summer, remember what Dowd said: “Don’t let perfection hinder you from doing good. Small precautions can make a difference in reducing transmission and keeping our communities safe.”
