Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be gaining ground in negotiations over a possible peace deal as President Trump works on ways to resolve the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The Kremlin has managed to avoid immediate additional sanctions from the U.S. and has persuaded Trump to drop demands for an instant ceasefire, not having to offer much beyond future discussions.
It’s a bit unclear if Putin is really interested in making deals unless they fit perfectly within the Kremlin’s terms, but there’s definitely been a noticeable shift in his dealings with Trump, seemingly benefiting the Russian leader.
Dmitry Gorenburg, a researcher at the CNA, noted, “In the meantime, they can keep pursuing their military objectives. I think things are going relatively well for them right now.”
Trump remains somewhat optimistic after a recent meeting with Putin in Alaska, where he acknowledged there was no ceasefire agreement, yet claimed they made some headway.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was present during Trump and Putin’s weekend discussions, stated that while peace is still far off, there’s enough progress to justify ongoing efforts. Meanwhile, Steve Witkov, Trump’s representative, mentioned that Russia has indicated support for Ukrainian security guarantees, although the specific details remain vague.
This sets the stage for a meeting on Monday involving Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders. Post-visit to the White House, Zelensky shared his encouragement regarding Trump’s interest in Ukraine’s potential postwar security assurances.
Trump is now advocating for Putin and Zelensky to meet face-to-face for the first time since the onset of the conflict in February 2022, with hopes of finalizing peace deal details.
Gorenburg expressed surprise at the meeting’s occurrence and cast doubt on the chances for progress, suggesting that Russia might be content with stalling things. “Different kinds of delays and compounding obstacles seem to be conducive to keeping the Trump administration engaged,” he said.
During a call on Monday, Trump mentioned the idea of direct negotiations with Putin. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was non-committal when asked about it, mentioning that such a meeting would require careful preparation.
Raihol Nijau from the Finland Institute for International Studies emphasized the need for all parties to work towards peace, implying optimism that a meeting involving Trump might happen.
Zelensky seems worried about losing U.S. support, Putin aims to maintain Trump’s neutrality, and Trump is looking for a way to exit Ukraine while preserving his reputation.
However, Nijau characterized the ongoing discussions about security guarantees and territorial compromises as “empty talk” in light of the current wartime dynamics, noting both sides’ firm stances. Putin is unlikely to accept similar protections as NATO for Ukraine, and Zelensky has shown no inclination to cede the Eastern Donbas region.
Reports indicate that Putin is demanding complete control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Donbas, even areas not currently under Russian occupation, while being open to stabilizing frontline positions in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Despite Trump’s assertions of progress, Russia has not changed its fundamental requirements for Ukraine’s complete political and military capitulation, as reiterated in Trump’s public comments in Alaska.
“Perhaps they’ll conclude they’re even further from a peace agreement than they were before Alaska,” Nijau remarked, suggesting that Russia is leveraging Trump’s inclination to shift towards their demands.
Nijau pointed out that European leaders at the meeting have utilized the optics to bolster their image, which Russian propaganda is now portraying as a sign of European weakness.
“Europeans continue to engage with Trump, praising him in hopes of influencing him, but it seems like Trump’s past commitments only encourage Moscow’s indifference,” he added.
The Trump administration has reportedly encouraged at least one concession from Putin, with Witkov stating that Russia has agreed to provide Ukraine with security assurances similar to those found in NATO’s Article 5.
Both France and the UK have expressed readiness to send troops if such an arrangement is established, while Trump has ruled out American ground forces but has considered offering air support for a post-war Ukraine.
Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow firmly rejects any scenario involving Ukraine aligning militarily with NATO countries.
Zelensky mentioned that details regarding security guarantees could be clarified within the next ten days, after which he would be prepared for a bilateral discussion with Putin about various “complex and painful issues.”
On Monday, Trump reached out to Hungarian President Viktor Orban to inquire about Ukrainian troops being dispatched to the European Union amid discussions on security for Kyiv.
Ola John from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee suggested that the chances of a peace agreement today might be better than they were two weeks ago, though he acknowledged that a deal still seems far off.
Reuters reported that Putin’s negotiating stance may also be influenced by domestic pressures within Russia, noting that declining enthusiasm for the war makes troop recruitment increasingly challenging.
“While they can always compel people to fight, it comes with significant social costs and is generally unpopular,” he pointed out. “It seems like Russians are starting to realize they can’t sustain this level of military effort indefinitely, making them keen on seeing what they can negotiate with Ukraine.”
