California Governor Gavin Newsom is suggesting that a special election on the new congressional map be framed as a referendum on President Trump, rather than just about his own political interests.
His fundraising activities and media narratives indicate this strategy clearly.
Newsom has enacted a bill to present the revised congressional map to voters in a special election. This new map replaces one created by a supposedly “independent” committee established by voters in a 2008 referendum, favoring a design intended to diminish Republican representation.
The revised map is projected to add at least four seats for Democrats, giving them about 47 of California’s 52 congressional seats. Meanwhile, Republicans may hold fewer than 10% of those seats, even though they represent roughly 40% of the state’s voters.
Newsom appears to aim at rallying support from voters by framing their decision on the new map as a stand against Trump.
Reportedly, the California campaign is being positioned as a national referendum concerning Trump, with Newsom and his supporters portraying it as a critical opportunity for Democrats to counteract the president’s agenda by flipping control in their home state, despite the gerrymandering tactics seen in states like Texas.
This strategy has previously yielded positive results for Newsom, who staved off a recall election in 2021. Recent opinion polling indicates that support for Newsom’s changes may not represent a majority of voter sentiment, although it does reflect various perspectives.
Besides aiming to assist Democrats in the midterms, Newsom’s ambitions appear to include enhancing his own political standing in light of the 2028 presidential primaries.
In pursuit of this objective, he has aligned himself with well-known democratic allies, such as the United Service Employees International Union (SEIU), as well as anti-Trump Republicans like Bill Bloomfield.
Interestingly, Bloomfield previously supported the establishment of California’s current “independent” constituency committee but is now backing Newsom’s gerrymandering measures due to his opposition to Trump.
On the other side, conservative mega-donor Charles Munger Jr. has contributed $10 million to defend the independent mapping system against Newsom’s partisan alterations, regarded by some as a purely Republican initiative.
If Newsom succeeds, California could face a political landscape more dominated by a single party and potentially less responsive to diverse voter needs.
While Newsom and other Democrats criticize Trump and Texas for seemingly reclaiming several “majority minority” seats deemed unconstitutional by the Justice Department, in actuality, Democrats have long engaged in similar practices to eradicate Republican seats in blue states.
This dynamic suggests that Democrats could end up losing more seats nationally compared to Republicans if states governed by the GOP retaliate.
