A former adviser to President Clinton has attempted to temper Democrats’ expectations for significant gains in Congress during the upcoming midterm elections, suggesting that political realities could hinder their success.
Doug Sosnik, who was a senior advisor during Clinton’s first two terms, noted the impact of Trump’s low approval ratings—especially regarding critical topics like the economy and inflation—which could position Democrats to reclaim several seats in Congress and possibly control at least one chamber.
However, he cautioned that while Democrats may perform well, they’re unlikely to achieve the levels of success traditionally associated with a presidential party losing seats in midterm elections.
“This situation is less about the Democratic Party’s lower recognition and more related to a political shift that started long before Trump entered the scene,” Sosnik remarked in a memo. “Trump symbolizes these changes rather than causing them.”
He expressed that Trump’s party appears to benefit from these political realignments for now. Historical data shows that the president’s approval ratings have been the best predictor for a party’s midterm performance since the 1950s, but this is now shifting toward educational demographics. Democrats are increasingly appealing to college-educated voters, who don’t represent the majority of the electorate.
Sosnik pointed out that the party has been losing ground among working-class and rural voters since the 1990s, hence their reliance on college-educated segments.
He also noted that Trump’s average approval aligns with figures from Clinton in 1994 and Obama in 2010, hinting at patterns in voter behavior. Additionally, he highlighted the decreasing number of competitive races due to more consistent voting trends across state and legislative districts. Democrats will need to target four Senate seats next year, though many are closely contested, with three being defended by Democrats.
Similar trends exist in the House, where only a handful of districts remain uncertain in their outcomes. He added that the GOP’s reshaping of districts, along with advantages in party registration and fundraising, could bolster their position going into the elections.
Sosnik indicated that Republicans struggle when Trump is not on the ballot and that Democrats could capitalize on the growing college-educated voter base during the midterms. “Ultimately, the election results will hinge on a small number of competitive Senate and House races,” he explained. “The results seem likely to depend on whether Republicans can navigate an increasingly unfavorable political landscape.”
