Senator Joni Ernst, a former Iraq War veteran and Iowa’s first female member of Congress, is anticipated to announce her decision not to run for reelection next month. This will leave another seat vacant in Iowa, where Democrats may see a chance to gain some traction.
As Senate Republicans strive to keep their majority, Ernst is joining several of her colleagues in stepping back. For instance, North Carolina Senator Tom Tillis has opted out of his reelection campaign after disagreements with former President Donald Trump.
Reports indicate that Ernst plans to share her decision to forgo a third term in September, according to four individuals familiar with her intentions who requested anonymity.
Ernst, once a lieutenant colonel in the Army National Guard, first secured her Senate position in 2014. She held a prominent role in GOP leadership for several years and was even considered as a potential vice presidential pick during Trump’s initial campaign.
Her choice aligns with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, the state’s first female governor, also stating she won’t pursue reelection. This has prompted other Republican officials in Iowa to contemplate vying for higher positions following Ernst’s exit.
Democrats are aiming for a resurgence in Iowa
Democrats are now eyeing a comeback in a state that’s seen some competitive races lately. Ernst faced backlash after a remark regarding Medicaid cuts during a public meeting. When a participant shouted that people would die without these services, Ernst’s response was somewhat dismissive, stating, “People… well, we’re all going to die.”
The current field of Senate Democratic candidates is ready to seize this moment, especially given the changing dynamics as other Republicans join the race.
This upcoming election marks the first time Ernst has been contested since she first ran in 2014, with Iowa’s Chuck Grassley having dominated the seat for an impressive 45 years.
Ernst initially gained visibility through a memorable campaign ad in 2014 that depicted her background in agriculture, and she managed to win reelection in 2020, though with a reduced margin compared to her previous run.
This year, she’s also stirred controversy among Trump’s supporters, especially after hesitating to endorse Trump’s defense secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, due to his past comments about women in combat and allegations of sexual misconduct.
Ernst, a sexual assault survivor herself, highlighted her desire to hear more from Hegseth on those sensitive issues. This stance drew considerable attention and reflected Trump’s significant influence within the party.
Over the years, Ernst has faced criticism, including for her vote in favor of protecting same-sex marriage rights in 2022.
Despite these challenges, Ernst still benefits from a Republican voter base that outnumbers Democrats in Iowa. She announced her campaign manager back in June, prepping for a fundraiser later this year that raised around $1.8 million in the first half of the year.
Potential contenders for the open seat
Representative Ashley Hinson, hailing from Cedar Rapids, is regarded as a likely candidate for the Senate seat. Recent elections in Iowa have shown the competitiveness of its congressional districts.
If Hinson enters the Senate race, she would do so from a strong position, having secured 57% of the vote in her district during the last election, according to Republican strategist Luke Martz.
“We could be heading into a turbulent phase, and if Hinson runs, that could create a third highly targeted seat,” Martz noted.
A spokesperson for the National Republican Senate Committee declined to comment, and messages sent to Ernst’s staff went unanswered.
Meanwhile, several Democrats, including state senators and local leaders, are also eyeing the nominations for the upcoming race.
On the Republican side, two candidates—former state senator Jim Carlin and veteran Joshua Smith—have already entered the primary to challenge Ernst.
Shifting Republican landscape
Iowa, a traditional swing state, has leaned Republican for more than a decade now, with Republican governors since 2010 and U.S. Senate victories since 2014.
After Democrats, led by Barack Obama, won the state in 2008 and 2012, Trump triumphed in the state for three consecutive elections, notably winning by a margin of 13.2 percentage points last year.
Initial reports about Ernst’s impending decision were shared by CBS News.
