River’s Bitcoin Flow Insights
River Companies has reported that they receive significantly more Bitcoin daily than what is generated by miners. This U.S.-based Bitcoin Financial Services firm, which operates mining alongside brokerage services, shared a Sankey-style infographic on August 25. This infographic illustrates daily Bitcoin movements—outflows on the left and inflows on the right, with the line thickness indicating the volume.
The snapshot indicates that businesses absorb approximately 450 BTC mined daily compared to about 1,755 BTC from various sources. River defines “business” broadly, including Bitcoin finance firms and conventional companies holding Bitcoin in their financial statements. Utilizing public applications and their own tagging methods, River estimates that around 1,755 BTC flows into these business wallets every day.
In contrast, the new Bitcoin supply from miners is estimated at roughly 450 BTC per day for 2025. This figure, reflecting halved block subsidies at 3.125 BTC per block, accounts for the variable nature of block timings. On average, Bitcoin blocks are generated every 144 minutes, which means the actual daily supply can fluctuate slightly.
River argues that this indicates businesses are acquiring Bitcoin at nearly four times the rate it is being mined. The infographic also highlights substantial institutional investments—about 1,430 BTC daily coming from funds and ETFs, augmenting the total Bitcoin absorbed compared to new issuance. Furthermore, smaller quantities are allocated to other entities (around 411 BTC/day) and government (approximately 39 BTC/day). A minor, yet steady, flow of 14 BTC/day is classified as “lost Bitcoin,” meaning these coins are deemed inaccessible.
Interestingly, individuals represent the largest outflow, estimated at around 3,196 BTC/day. It’s important to clarify that this doesn’t imply retail investors are necessarily selling off their coins. Instead, it reflects a transfer of Bitcoin from what River identifies as individual-owned addresses to those classified as institutional.
River concludes that, since inflows into businesses and funds surpass new Bitcoin mined, this pressure could elevate the available supply. However, they caution readers to interpret the infographic carefully. The numbers are approximations, not precise metrics of blockchain activity.
River utilizes various methods, including wallet tagging and public data, which may lead to some inaccuracies or misclassifications. Also, it’s crucial to note that higher net inflows don’t equate directly to spot market purchases. The reported +1,755 BTC indicates not just direct exchanges but also includes OTC transactions and custody transfers.
For those unfamiliar with flow diagrams, it’s essential to recognize that the lines represent overall balances rather than every single transaction. If, over time, more coins consistently accumulate in business and governmental wallets than are mined, River suggests this could tighten supply.
While the infographic doesn’t predict Bitcoin prices, it does reflect shifting ownership patterns. If the trend of institutional purchases continues outpacing mining, River points out that institutions could significantly influence Bitcoin supply dynamics moving forward.
