Key takeout:
Bitcoin (BTC) is about to finish August, marking its first month of closure since April amidst growing concerns that the recession may worsen as September approaches.
September often brings challenges for Bitcoin
Historically, Bitcoin has tended to struggle in September.
Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has ended in the red for two-thirds of those months, with an average loss of around 3.80%.
Experienced traders note that September typically sets the tone for the fourth quarter, a time when many look to cash in their profits after the summer. For instance, September has averaged a return of -1.20% for the S&P 500 index.
In many cases, Bitcoin’s performance mirrors that of riskier assets, which tends to drop this time of year.
Interestingly, the only times Bitcoin showed gains in September since 2013 came after a weak August.
Related: Bitcoin Price Lost the Important Multi-Year Support Trend Line: Classic BTC fakeout?
Analyst Rekt Fencer mentioned that, looking back at 2017, he doesn’t expect any major September drops this year.
Comparative charts from 2017 and 2025 show a similar pattern; Bitcoin faced a significant decline at the end of August before stabilizing at crucial support levels.
In 2017, this retracement preceded an impressive surge to $20,000. Today, Bitcoin is hovering around a critical support level, between $105,000 and $110,000.
Bitcoin might hit record highs within a month
The $105,000-110,000 range, which acted as resistance earlier this year, is showing signs of becoming a support level—a typical bullish indicator in technical analysis.
An intriguing counter-signal is emerging from what’s described as “hidden bullish divergences.” Despite falling prices, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, remains stable.
This could suggest that the market isn’t as weak as it seems, implying that buyers could be gradually returning.
Analyst Zyn believes that the current technical landscape justifies the possibility of a rally in September, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price beyond $124,500 over the next four to six weeks.
A weaker dollar could ignite Bitcoin in September
Currency market observers have noticed shifting dynamics with the dollar. The sluggish US economy and anticipated cuts to the Fed rate have added to the uncertainty, further complicated by recent criticisms from Donald Trump regarding Fed policies that have led to an 8% decline in the dollar this year.
As of Sunday, the correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a two-year low at -0.25, signaling a major divergence.
This decline could be beneficial for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, increasing the likelihood of gains as the dollar continues to weaken.
Analyst Ash Crypto remarked last week, “The Fed is likely to implement more monetary stimulus in the fourth quarter,” suggesting that these rate cuts could inject fresh capital into the crypto space. Expectedly, he added, this could lead to a “parabolic stage” for altcoins.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk, and readers must conduct their own research.
