Democrats haven’t won a general election since 2012 without dealing with Trump. This leads to a crucial question: come 2028, with Trump off the ballot, will they still be reflecting on the past?
The last time Democrats took the national stage was when Barack Obama was seeking re-election, facing off against Mitt Romney, who fell short by over 5 million popular votes and lost 126 electoral votes. Romney’s defeat was notable for both him and the Republican establishment he represented.
In 2014, Democrats again leaned on Obama’s legacy and the Affordable Care Act, but it didn’t pan out. They lost nine seats, lost control of the Senate, and fell further into the minority in the House with only 188 Democrats against 247 Republicans.
History shifted in 2016 when Donald Trump, a newcomer, seized the Republican nomination, changing the game completely. He seized control of the party and has maintained that dominance since.
That same year, the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton, who, despite her extensive experience, faced significant scrutiny. This was a stark contrast to the last major upset by a Democrat when Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey in 1948.
In the 2018 midterms, with Trump in the spotlight, Democrats capitalized on his low approval ratings, resulting in a gain of 40 House seats and turning the tables with numerous investigations into his administration.
The 2020 election, occurring amid a pandemic and civil upheaval, allowed Democrats to refocus on Trump once more, leading to Joe Biden’s nomination. In an environment similar to Gerald Ford’s presidency, Democrats gained control of Congress, winning three Senate seats without any incumbents.
However, in 2022, they struggled. Trump wasn’t a candidate, and the party couldn’t claim his divisiveness to their advantage. Instead, they had to contend with Biden as the incumbent, which contributed to their loss of 13 House seats.
In 2024, Biden and Kamala Harris were the Democratic nominees. But they couldn’t shift the election dynamics. The results showed significant losses, including a Senate defeat, as Republicans reclaimed ground.
Overall, since their 2012 victory over Obama, Democrats have only won national elections in 2018 and 2020, both with Trump as the focal point. They’ve since lost four elections: 2014, 2016, 2022, and 2024. While they may be 2-0 against Trump, they’re actually 0-4 in broader terms.
The Democratic establishment appears fatigued. Names like “Hillary” or “Biden” don’t carry the same weight anymore, and party leaders seem harder to identify. The party base is also much more left-leaning than it was back in 2012, when they enjoyed success.
This disconnect likely explains why Democrats are hesitant to frame their 2026 strategy around Trump. Another midterm lies ahead, followed by Trump’s unpopularity—as reflected in recent polls—could work against them.
Furthermore, the Democratic Party has yet to articulate a compelling agenda for victory, still grappling with the aftermath of the November 2024 elections.
However, 2028 could be distinct. Without Trump on the ballot, Democrats might find themselves aiming to address the issues he left behind from his presidency, highlighting a legacy that’s been central to their narrative for over a decade. Yet, they will have to navigate a political landscape that may very well still feel like a daunting challenge.
