Missouri Democrats see a potential opportunity to halt a newly proposed congressional map that favors the GOP, even while they remain in the minority in the state legislature.
Governor Mike Kehoe (R) is expected to sign the revised congressional map, which could give Republicans an extra seat in the House. The Senate approved the measure on Friday, just as the GOP looks to maintain its slim majority.
However, there is a chance for Democrats to challenge this map by putting it to a vote among Missouri residents as a rejection referendum.
Here’s what you need to know:
How it works
Democrats have limited legislative options apart from temporary tactics to stall the process. The fate of the redistricting bill depends on the margin by which Congress votes on it, which could open up another chance for opposition.
Missouri law allows opposition groups to collect signatures to force a statewide vote, effectively challenging new laws passed by lawmakers.
The bill approved this week lacked emergency clauses, meaning it can take effect once the governor signs it. But the requirement for emergency approval is higher than the number of Republican seats in both chambers.
Democrats and their allies will need to gather signatures from 5% of voters in two-thirds of the legislative districts within 90 days after the governor’s signature, as outlined by the Missouri Secretary of State.
If they succeed, a public vote will determine the map’s future.
“They’re leveraging political science effectively,” noted Greg Boname, a political science professor from Kansas City, Missouri.
Support for the state Senate referendum has been declared by Missouri Democrats.
“They’re disregarding the people’s voice in government,” said state party chair Rus Carnahan about the legislators who pushed the map forward. “It’s our responsibility to act where they fall short.”
A nonpartisan coalition, comprised of everyday citizens rather than politicians, officially submitted a referendum petition with the Secretary of State’s office on Friday, kicking off the signature collection effort.
Protest and Opposition Signals
Reports indicate thousands gathered at the Missouri Capitol this week to protest the redistricting plans, voicing their opposition as they hope for substantial support in the referendum.
Turnout has been low, but a recent survey conducted by the Democratic House Campaign Division at the end of August revealed that 48% of Missouri voters oppose redistricting, with 37% in favor and 19% undecided.
Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of the Center for Voting Initiative Strategy, remarked that the protests suggest a strong readiness to oppose the map, implying that opponents may stand a good chance in the referendum effort. Progressive organizations aim to utilize voting measures to enhance democracy, particularly for marginalized groups, and strive to improve racial equity.
“There’s considerable opposition to this illegal gerrymandering,” she stated, highlighting a history of using initiatives and referendums to amplify citizen voices in Missouri.
However, Dan Butler, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis, cautioned that focusing on the referendum may not be the Democrats’ most pressing concern.
“Voters typically lean Republican, but they may express frustration with the district map and aim to send a message,” he explained. “But in voting against the district plan and still supporting Republicans, they might inadvertently shield them from backlash.”
Voters Used a Referendum to Reject a Law in 2018
There is a precedent in Missouri for utilizing referendums to overturn legislative actions.
Recent history shows voters legalized recreational marijuana and safeguarded abortion rights using this process, although the use of referendums has become less common, according to experts.
“Missouri residents are typically engaged in initiatives, but we haven’t frequently seen general referendums,” expressed Vonaf.
Still, citizens last invoked a referendum in 2018, decisively rejecting the Right to Work law pushed through by the majority GOP. Labor advocates secured enough signatures to put it to a vote, which ultimately saw the law defeated by a 2-to-1 margin.
“Grassroots organizations must capitalize on the opportunities available to protect the direct democracy that has widespread support here,” Figueredo added.
Targeted Democrats Signal Legal Challenges
With Republicans controlling six out of eight districts, the newly proposed map significantly alters Kansas City’s 5th Congressional District, presumably to benefit Republican candidates.
Cleaver expressed disappointment over the Missouri House’s approval of the map, suggesting the lawmakers chose partisan interests over the desires of their constituents.
Having served in Congress for 20 years, Cleaver plans to pursue a new court map and continues his campaign for reelection, regardless of the district’s new boundaries.
Political scientist David Kimball pointed out that legal challenges or a referendum appear to be the primary avenues for Democrats to oppose the map.
Suzan Delbene, chair of the Democratic House Campaign Committee, stated that “all options” would be considered.
“Missouri residents dislike the manipulation by Republicans. Voters are determined to push back against these gerrymandering efforts and will explore every avenue, including both legal challenges and referendums, to secure a fair map,” she remarked.
