Can the DXY hold its ground since 2011? Will the EUR/USD break through channel resistance in 2022? And what about the shifts with GBP/USD from last July?
We’re diving into these topics in today’s video, especially as we near some significant Federal Reserve rate decisions and press conferences.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook
The Dollar Index is at a crucial juncture just hours ahead of the Fed announcement.
Currently, on the daily charts, it rests at around 96.70, which is a key support level for this summer’s lower trendline.
If you take a broader view, things get even more intriguing. The monthly chart indicates that 96.70 corresponds with the pivot points from 2021-2022.
If it slips below this level by day’s end, we could quickly see a drop to 94.65—something that would mark a significant breakdown after years.
However, if it manages to stay above 97.70, I might see it as a bear trap. In that scenario, the bounce zones would likely be around 98.60 and 99.35.
The Fed? Well, it’s unpredictable. Volatility is common, so we need to pay close attention to daily close outcomes.
EurUSD Forecast
EurUSD is hovering near the 1.1900 mark, a level that hasn’t been breached easily before.
There’s a meeting slated in the same area at the beginning of 2024. Currently, prices are ascending within rising channels and testing the upper boundary.
Looking at the weekly chart, the range from 1.1900 to 1.2100 has functioned as resistance for years.
If we see clean daily closures above 1.1900, we could target 1.2100. Breaking through there would suggest a bullish long-term trend.
However, if sellers hold firm, potential pullbacks to around 1.1580 or even 1.1440 could occur.
This isn’t a moment to chase. It’d be wiser to wait for either a breakout to confirm or a rejection to validate caution.
GBPUSD Analysis
GBPUSD is currently pushing against the resistance at 1.3660.
The 1.3680 to 1.3730 range has capped prices since July. This is a real test for buyers.
Daily closes above 1.3730 would likely pave the way to 1.3870, a strong showing for the bulls.
Should resistance hold firm, we might see a retreat to around 1.3610, and deeper dips could take us to 1.3480.
The Fed is expected to impact this volatility, making patience crucial—we can’t rush predictions.
Only with confirmed closings above 1.3730 can we say the breakout is genuine. Otherwise, there’s a risk of further rejection and sideway movements.
